How the numbers work

Season probabilities describe possible futures

A season model starts with recorded results, remaining fixtures, competition rules and assumptions about future performance. It calculates many possible remaining seasons, or enumerates outcomes exactly when the problem is small enough. A team appearing in a qualification place in 60% of those outcomes is assigned a 60% qualification estimate under those assumptions.

That number is not a promise that the team will qualify, and it is not necessarily its chance of winning its next match. A fixture-impact view can show a team's season qualification chance conditional on a particular winner; that is a different question from the winner's match probability.

Cricket season calculations use each configured qualification format. Other sports use their own rating, scoring and competition models. Football models use estimated team strengths and goals; basketball and other team sports have sport-specific methods; Formula 1 distinguishes driver and constructor outcomes. The model notes on a league page describe the method used there.

Points tables and rules

A standings position depends on the published competition format and its tie-breakers. Groups, split leagues, playoffs, points deductions and unfinished fixtures can affect what a table means. A single generic rank rule cannot describe every competition.

Cricket net run rate is shown when available. Do not assume every future net-run-rate swing has been simulated: the relevant page states that limitation. Completed-season tables and champions are recorded outcomes, while an in-season estimate depends on the remaining schedule and model assumptions.

Reading a live cricket score

Cricket ball notation is not a decimal number. In a six-ball format, 17.5 overs means 17 complete overs plus five legal balls: 107 legal balls. Wides and no-balls can change runs without advancing the legal-ball count. Formats using different counting rules need different treatment.

Multi-innings scores are preserved as supplied where a simple numeric interpretation would be misleading. Rain, revised targets, interruptions, super overs and unfamiliar formats cannot safely be inferred from an isolated score total. Coverage and available details vary by match; an empty feed does not establish that no cricket is being played.

Four kinds of time

A source event time, the time the site checked a source, a published snapshot time and a bookmaker quote time can all differ. A successful refresh does not prove that a new ball was bowled. When the source omits an event time, the page says so.

Scorecards, commentary, predictions and prices have independent availability and clocks. Old data can remain useful when clearly marked as last known. A correction can lower a score or revise an earlier event. Pausing updates keeps a reading position stable; it does not make the retained view current.

Model estimates and bookmaker prices

A match-win model would estimate outcomes from a verified match state and a validated model. The current T20 chase candidate remains research-only: release checks and required live inputs are incomplete, so it does not supply public match-win percentages. Season qualification probabilities are not substituted for it.

Bookmaker decimal prices are external quotes, include a bookmaker margin and may have different settlement rules. They are not Playoff Pulse model percentages. A suspended, unknown or overdue market must not be labelled as a current open quote. No betting transaction is processed here.

Limits and corrections

Input errors, unavailable sources and modelling assumptions affect results. Coverage of one competition or category does not validate another. Evaluation should keep entire matches in chronological groups, compare reasonable baselines and test calibration as well as discrimination. A strong aggregate score can hide an unsupported subgroup.

Sources are credited on each league or match page. Implementation and evaluation notes are available in the public repository. For a suspected error, include the page and a source reference in a public correction report, without personal or account information.