In season
WNBL 2026-27
WNBL 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Finals favourite: SYD 87%. Standings leader: Sydney Flames · 4 wins. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Finals favourite
- SYD 87%
- Standings leader
- Sydney Flames · 4 wins
| Rank | Team | Group | W | L | PCT | % | GB | DIFF | L10 | STRK | Finals | Top 3 | Minor premiership | Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Flames | overall | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 119.44 | 0 | +14 | 4-0 | W4 | 87% | 65% | 28% | 19% |
| 2 | Perth Lynx | overall | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 106.67 | 1 | +5.5 | 2-0 | W2 | 86% | 66% | 30% | 24% |
| 3 | Townsville Fire | overall | 2 | 2 | 0.500 | 108.01 | 2 | +6.2 | 2-2 | W1 | 83% | 58% | 18% | 26% |
| 4 | Tasmania Jewels | overall | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 98.34 | 2 | -1.5 | 1-1 | L1 | 50% | 24% | 6% | 6% |
| 5 | Geelong Venom | overall | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 95.35 | 2 | -4 | 1-1 | W1 | 43% | 20% | 4% | 5% |
| 6 | UC Capitals | overall | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 94.25 | 2 | -5 | 1-1 | L1 | 43% | 19% | 4% | 5% |
| 7 | Southside Melbourne Flyers | overall | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 103.1 | 2.5 | +2.3 | 1-2 | L1 | 54% | 26% | 6% | 9% |
| 8 | Bendigo Spirit | overall | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 86.49 | 3 | -12.5 | 0-2 | L2 | 37% | 16% | 3% | 5% |
| 9 | Adelaide Lightning | overall | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 80.44 | 3.5 | -17.7 | 0-3 | L3 | 17% | 5% | 0.6% | 2% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Margin ratings model.
Source notice: 2 past games have no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at the source); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Team ratings come from score margins (capped at 35) with home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 90-day half-life; last season counts 1x as much on top.
- The rest of the regular season is simulated 20,000 times, letting team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), then the playoffs are simulated from each simulated table for title odds.
- The table breaks ties on win percentage with the league's rules: points percentage (points scored over points conceded). Simulated seasons break ties at random.
- Finals results have no free data source, so once the regular season ends the page shows the final ladder without title odds.
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