Playoffs
WNBA 2026
WNBA 2026: playoffs standings and model probabilities. Playoffs favourite: MIN >99.9%. Standings leader: Minnesota Lynx · 33 wins. Updated 2026-10-29.
- Playoffs favourite
- MIN >99.9%
- Standings leader
- Minnesota Lynx · 33 wins
| Rank | Team | Group | W | L | PCT | GB | DIFF | L10 | STRK | Playoffs | Top 4 | No. 1 seed | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx | overall | 33 | 11 | 0.750 | 0 | +7.2 | 6-4 | W1 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | – |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries | overall | 32 | 12 | 0.727 | 1 | +7 | 7-3 | W1 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 57% |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces | overall | 31 | 13 | 0.705 | 2 | +5.7 | 8-2 | W7 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | – |
| 4 | Atlanta Dream | overall | 30 | 14 | 0.682 | 3 | +6.9 | 9-1 | W5 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 43% |
| 5 | Washington Mystics | overall | 28 | 16 | 0.636 | 5 | +1.3 | 8-2 | W4 | >99.9% | – | – | – |
| 6 | Indiana Fever | overall | 28 | 16 | 0.636 | 5 | +5.5 | 6-4 | L1 | >99.9% | – | – | – |
| 7 | Dallas Wings | overall | 27 | 17 | 0.614 | 6 | +4.1 | 7-3 | W1 | >99.9% | – | – | – |
| 8 | New York Liberty | overall | 26 | 18 | 0.591 | 7 | +3.4 | 6-4 | L2 | >99.9% | – | – | – |
| 9 | Portland Fire | overall | 17 | 27 | 0.386 | 16 | -4.8 | 3-7 | W1 | – | – | – | – |
| 10 | Phoenix Mercury | overall | 16 | 28 | 0.364 | 17 | -3.2 | 4-6 | L1 | – | – | – | – |
| 11 | Chicago Sky | overall | 16 | 28 | 0.364 | 17 | -3.9 | 4-6 | L1 | – | – | – | – |
| 12 | Los Angeles Sparks | overall | 16 | 28 | 0.364 | 17 | -4.3 | 4-6 | L2 | – | – | – | – |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo | overall | 11 | 33 | 0.250 | 22 | -8.7 | 1-9 | L8 | – | – | – | – |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun | overall | 11 | 33 | 0.250 | 22 | -9.4 | 2-8 | W1 | – | – | – | – |
| 15 | Seattle Storm | overall | 8 | 36 | 0.182 | 25 | -6.8 | 2-8 | L5 | – | – | – | – |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Margin ratings model.
Model notes
- Team ratings come from score margins (capped at 25) with home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 120-day half-life; last season counts 0.5x as much on top.
- The rest of the regular season is simulated 20,000 times, letting team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), then the playoffs are simulated from each simulated table for title odds.
- The table breaks ties on win percentage with the league's rules: head-to-head record, then record against teams at .500 or better, then head-to-head points difference, then points difference. Simulated seasons break ties at random.
- The Commissioner's Cup final does not count in the standings and is left out; the Cup's group games do count.
- Playoffs: series still to play are simulated 20,000 times from the regular-season ratings, starting from the real series scores.
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