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99, "awayScore": 89, "note": "First Round" }, { "id": "playoff-result-18", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-28T01:00:00Z", "home": "Golden State Valkyries", "away": "Dallas Wings", "homeScore": 104, "awayScore": 80, "note": "First Round" }, { "id": "playoff-result-19", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-27T23:00:00Z", "home": "Atlanta Dream", "away": "Washington Mystics", "homeScore": 92, "awayScore": 77, "note": "First Round" }, { "id": "playoff-result-20", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-27T20:00:00Z", "home": "Las Vegas Aces", "away": "Indiana Fever", "homeScore": 102, "awayScore": 85, "note": "First Round" }, { "id": "playoff-result-21", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-27T18:00:00Z", "home": "Minnesota Lynx", "away": "New York Liberty", "homeScore": 75, "awayScore": 91, "note": "First Round" }, { "id": "330", "round": 17, "date": "2026-09-25T02:00:00Z", "home": "Phoenix Mercury", "away": "Las Vegas Aces", "homeScore": 82, "awayScore": 100 }, { "id": "329", "round": 17, "date": 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"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z", "home": "Portland Fire", "away": "Indiana Fever", "homeScore": 100, "awayScore": 84 }, { "id": "61", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-30T22:00:00Z", "home": "Connecticut Sun", "away": "Los Angeles Sparks", "homeScore": 84, "awayScore": 81 }, { "id": "60", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-30T17:00:00Z", "home": "Toronto Tempo", "away": "Seattle Storm", "homeScore": 93, "awayScore": 72 }, { "id": "59", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-30T02:00:00Z", "home": "Portland Fire", "away": "Atlanta Dream", "homeScore": 66, "awayScore": 86 }, { "id": "58", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-29T23:30:00Z", "home": "Chicago Sky", "away": "Minnesota Lynx", "homeScore": 58, "awayScore": 79 }, { "id": "57", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-29T23:30:00Z", "home": "Washington Mystics", "away": "Los Angeles Sparks", "homeScore": 87, "awayScore": 92 }, { "id": "56", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-29T23:30:00Z", "home": "New York Liberty", "away": "Phoenix Mercury", "homeScore": 75, "awayScore": 68 }, { "id": "55", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-29T02:00:00Z", "home": "Golden State Valkyries", "away": "Indiana Fever", "homeScore": 90, "awayScore": 88 }, { "id": "54", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-29T00:00:00Z", "home": "Dallas Wings", "away": "Las Vegas Aces", "homeScore": 95, "awayScore": 87 }, { "id": "53", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-28T02:00:00Z", "home": "Seattle Storm", "away": "Washington Mystics", "homeScore": 64, "awayScore": 78 }, { "id": "52", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-28T02:00:00Z", "home": "Portland Fire", "away": "Connecticut Sun", "homeScore": 71, "awayScore": 61 }, { "id": "51", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-28T01:00:00Z", "home": "Minnesota Lynx", "away": "Atlanta Dream", "homeScore": 96, "awayScore": 81 }, { "id": "50", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-28T00:00:00Z", "home": "Chicago Sky", "away": "Toronto Tempo", "homeScore": 104, "awayScore": 111 }, { "id": "49", "round": 4, "date": "2026-05-27T23:00:00Z", "home": "New York Liberty", "away": "Phoenix Mercury", "homeScore": 84, "awayScore": 74 }, { "id": "48", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-26T02:00:00Z", "home": "Golden State Valkyries", "away": "Connecticut Sun", "homeScore": 97, "awayScore": 70 }, { "id": "47", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-26T00:00:00Z", "home": "New York Liberty", "away": "Portland Fire", "homeScore": 74, "awayScore": 81 }, { "id": "46", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-24T22:00:00Z", "home": "Seattle Storm", "away": "Washington Mystics", "homeScore": 97, "awayScore": 85 }, { "id": "45", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-24T19:30:00Z", "home": "New York Liberty", "away": "Dallas Wings", "homeScore": 76, "awayScore": 91 }, { "id": "44", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-24T19:00:00Z", "home": "Atlanta Dream", "away": "Phoenix Mercury", "homeScore": 82, "awayScore": 80 }, { "id": "43", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-24T00:00:00Z", "home": "Las Vegas Aces", "away": "Los Angeles Sparks", "homeScore": 95, "awayScore": 101 }, { "id": "42", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-23T22:00:00Z", "home": "Toronto Tempo", "away": "Portland Fire", "homeScore": 80, "awayScore": 99 }, { "id": "41", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-23T17:00:00Z", "home": "Chicago Sky", "away": "Minnesota Lynx", "homeScore": 75, "awayScore": 85 }, { "id": "40", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-23T02:00:00Z", "home": "Seattle Storm", "away": "Connecticut Sun", "homeScore": 77, "awayScore": 59 }, { "id": "39", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-22T23:30:00Z", "home": "Indiana Fever", "away": "Golden State Valkyries", "homeScore": 90, "awayScore": 82 }, { "id": "38", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-22T23:30:00Z", "home": "Atlanta Dream", "away": "Dallas Wings", "homeScore": 86, "awayScore": 69 }, { "id": "37", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-22T02:00:00Z", "home": "Phoenix Mercury", "away": "Los Angeles Sparks", "homeScore": 88, "awayScore": 97 }, { "id": "36", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-22T00:00:00Z", "home": "Minnesota Lynx", "away": "Toronto Tempo", "homeScore": 100, "awayScore": 72 }, { "id": "35", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-22T00:00:00Z", "home": "New York Liberty", "away": "Golden State Valkyries", "homeScore": 70, "awayScore": 87 }, { "id": "34", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-21T02:00:00Z", "home": "Seattle Storm", "away": "Connecticut Sun", "homeScore": 78, "awayScore": 80 }, { "id": "33", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-21T01:00:00Z", "home": "Chicago Sky", "away": "Dallas Wings", "homeScore": 89, "awayScore": 99 }, { "id": "32", "round": 3, "date": "2026-05-20T23:00:00Z", "home": "Indiana Fever", "away": "Portland Fire", "homeScore": 90, "awayScore": 73 }, { "id": "31", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-20T02:00:00Z", "home": "Phoenix Mercury", "away": "Toronto Tempo", "homeScore": 90, "awayScore": 98 }, { "id": "30", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-19T02:00:00Z", "home": "Portland Fire", "away": "Connecticut Sun", "homeScore": 83, "awayScore": 82 }, { "id": "29", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-19T00:00:00Z", "home": "Dallas Wings", "away": "Washington Mystics", "homeScore": 92, "awayScore": 69 }, { "id": "28", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-17T23:00:00Z", "home": "Los Angeles Sparks", "away": "Toronto Tempo", "homeScore": 96, "awayScore": 106 }, { "id": "25", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-17T23:00:00Z", "home": "Minnesota Lynx", "away": "Chicago Sky", "homeScore": 79, "awayScore": 86 }, { "id": "27", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-17T22:00:00Z", "home": "Indiana Fever", "away": "Seattle Storm", "homeScore": 89, "awayScore": 78 }, { "id": "26", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-17T17:30:00Z", "home": "Atlanta Dream", "away": "Las Vegas Aces", "homeScore": 84, "awayScore": 85 }, { "id": "24", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-16T02:00:00Z", "home": "Phoenix Mercury", "away": "Chicago Sky", "homeScore": 91, "awayScore": 83 }, { "id": "23", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-16T02:00:00Z", "home": "Los Angeles Sparks", "away": "Toronto Tempo", "homeScore": 99, "awayScore": 95 }, { "id": "22", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-15T23:30:00Z", "home": "Indiana Fever", "away": "Washington Mystics", "homeScore": 102, "awayScore": 104 }, { "id": "21", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-15T23:30:00Z", "home": "Connecticut Sun", "away": "Las Vegas Aces", "homeScore": 94, "awayScore": 101 }, { "id": "20", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-15T02:00:00Z", "home": "Portland Fire", "away": "New York Liberty", "homeScore": 82, "awayScore": 100 }, { "id": "19", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-15T00:00:00Z", "home": "Dallas Wings", "away": "Minnesota Lynx", "homeScore": 86, "awayScore": 90 }, { "id": "18", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-14T02:30:00Z", "home": "Los Angeles Sparks", "away": "Indiana Fever", "homeScore": 78, "awayScore": 87 }, { "id": "17", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-14T02:00:00Z", "home": "Golden State Valkyries", "away": "Chicago Sky", "homeScore": 63, "awayScore": 69 }, { "id": "16", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-14T00:00:00Z", "home": "Connecticut Sun", "away": "Las Vegas Aces", "homeScore": 69, "awayScore": 98 }, { "id": "15", "round": 2, "date": "2026-05-13T23:00:00Z", "home": "Toronto Tempo", "away": "Seattle Storm", "homeScore": 86, "awayScore": 73 }, { "id": "14", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-13T02:00:00Z", "home": "Portland Fire", "away": "New York Liberty", "homeScore": 98, "awayScore": 96 }, { "id": "13", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-13T02:00:00Z", "home": "Phoenix Mercury", "away": "Minnesota Lynx", "homeScore": 84, "awayScore": 88 }, { "id": "12", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-13T00:00:00Z", "home": "Dallas Wings", "away": "Atlanta Dream", "homeScore": 72, "awayScore": 77 }, { "id": "11", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-11T00:30:00Z", "home": "Golden State Valkyries", "away": "Phoenix Mercury", "homeScore": 95, "awayScore": 79 }, { "id": "9", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-10T22:00:00Z", "home": "Los Angeles Sparks", "away": "Las Vegas Aces", "homeScore": 78, "awayScore": 105 }, { "id": "8", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-10T19:00:00Z", "home": "Washington Mystics", "away": "New York Liberty", "homeScore": 93, "awayScore": 98 }, { "id": "7", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-10T17:00:00Z", "home": "Connecticut Sun", "away": "Seattle Storm", "homeScore": 82, "awayScore": 89 }, { "id": "6", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-10T01:00:00Z", "home": "Portland Fire", "away": "Chicago Sky", "homeScore": 83, "awayScore": 98 }, { "id": "10", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-10T00:00:00Z", "home": "Minnesota Lynx", "away": "Atlanta Dream", "homeScore": 90, "awayScore": 91 }, { "id": "5", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-09T19:30:00Z", "home": "Las Vegas Aces", "away": "Phoenix Mercury", "homeScore": 66, "awayScore": 99 }, { "id": "4", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-09T17:00:00Z", "home": "Indiana Fever", "away": "Dallas Wings", "homeScore": 104, "awayScore": 107 }, { "id": "3", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-09T02:00:00Z", "home": "Seattle Storm", "away": "Golden State Valkyries", "homeScore": 80, "awayScore": 91 }, { "id": "2", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-08T23:30:00Z", "home": "Toronto Tempo", "away": "Washington Mystics", "homeScore": 65, "awayScore": 68 }, { "id": "1", "round": 1, "date": "2026-05-08T23:30:00Z", "home": "New York Liberty", "away": "Connecticut Sun", "homeScore": 106, "awayScore": 75 } ], "analysis": { "method": "Monte Carlo", "simulations": 20000, "model": "Margin ratings model", "modelNotes": [ "Team ratings come from score margins (capped at 25) with home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 120-day half-life; last season counts 0.5x as much on top.", "The rest of the regular season is simulated 20,000 times, letting team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), then the playoffs are simulated from each simulated table for title odds.", "The table breaks ties on win percentage with the league's rules: head-to-head record, then record against teams at .500 or better, then head-to-head points difference, then points difference. Simulated seasons break ties at random.", "The Commissioner's Cup final does not count in the standings and is left out; the Cup's group games do count.", "Playoffs: series still to play are simulated 20,000 times from the regular-season ratings, starting from the real series scores." ], "probabilities": { "Atlanta Dream": { "playoffs": 100.0, "top4": 100.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 42.78 }, "Chicago Sky": { "playoffs": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Connecticut Sun": { "playoffs": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Dallas Wings": { "playoffs": 100.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Golden State Valkyries": { "playoffs": 100.0, "top4": 100.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 57.22 }, "Indiana Fever": { "playoffs": 100.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Las Vegas Aces": { "playoffs": 100.0, "top4": 100.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Los Angeles Sparks": { "playoffs": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Minnesota Lynx": { "playoffs": 100.0, "top4": 100.0, "top1": 100.0, "title": 0.0 }, "New York Liberty": { "playoffs": 100.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Phoenix Mercury": { "playoffs": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Portland Fire": { "playoffs": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Seattle Storm": { "playoffs": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Toronto Tempo": { "playoffs": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 }, "Washington Mystics": { "playoffs": 100.0, "top4": 0.0, "top1": 0.0, "title": 0.0 } }, "positions": { "Atlanta Dream": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 100.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Chicago Sky": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 33.28, 33.56, 33.15, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Connecticut Sun": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 49.94, 50.06, 0.0 ], "Dallas Wings": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 100.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Golden State Valkyries": [ 0.0, 100.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Indiana Fever": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 50.45, 49.55, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Las Vegas Aces": [ 0.0, 0.0, 100.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Los Angeles Sparks": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 33.39, 33.04, 33.57, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Minnesota Lynx": [ 100.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "New York Liberty": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 100.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Phoenix Mercury": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 33.32, 33.4, 33.28, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Portland Fire": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 100.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Seattle Storm": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 100.0 ], "Toronto Tempo": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 50.06, 49.94, 0.0 ], "Washington Mystics": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 49.55, 50.45, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] }, "expected": { "Atlanta Dream": { "wins": 30.0, "seed": 4.0 }, "Chicago Sky": { "wins": 16.0, "seed": 11.0 }, "Connecticut Sun": { "wins": 11.0, "seed": 13.5 }, "Dallas Wings": { "wins": 27.0, "seed": 7.0 }, "Golden State Valkyries": { "wins": 32.0, "seed": 2.0 }, "Indiana Fever": { "wins": 28.0, "seed": 5.5 }, "Las Vegas Aces": { "wins": 31.0, "seed": 3.0 }, "Los Angeles Sparks": { "wins": 16.0, "seed": 11.0 }, "Minnesota Lynx": { "wins": 33.0, "seed": 1.0 }, "New York Liberty": { "wins": 26.0, "seed": 8.0 }, "Phoenix Mercury": { "wins": 16.0, "seed": 11.0 }, "Portland Fire": { "wins": 17.0, "seed": 9.0 }, "Seattle Storm": { "wins": 8.0, "seed": 15.0 }, "Toronto Tempo": { "wins": 11.0, "seed": 13.5 }, "Washington Mystics": { "wins": 28.0, "seed": 5.5 } }, "ratings": { "Atlanta Dream": 5.61, "Chicago Sky": -4.08, "Connecticut Sun": -7.42, "Dallas Wings": 3.05, "Golden State Valkyries": 6.06, "Indiana Fever": 4.67, "Las Vegas Aces": 5.15, "Los Angeles Sparks": -2.98, "Minnesota Lynx": 5.69, "New York Liberty": 2.37, "Phoenix Mercury": -2.27, "Portland Fire": -3.74, "Seattle Storm": -5.54, "Toronto Tempo": -7.97, "Washington Mystics": 1.4 }, "homeAdvantage": 1.72, "sigma": 11.5, "gamesPerTeam": 44 }, "matchesThatMatter": [], "bracket": { "rounds": [ { "key": "R1", "label": "First Round", "series": [ { "stage": "R1", "conference": null, "top": "Minnesota Lynx", "bottom": "New York Liberty", "topSeed": 1, "bottomSeed": 8, "topWins": 0, "bottomWins": 2, "bestOf": 3, "winner": "New York Liberty" }, { "stage": "R1", "conference": null, "top": "Atlanta Dream", "bottom": "Washington Mystics", "topSeed": 4, "bottomSeed": 5, "topWins": 2, "bottomWins": 0, "bestOf": 3, "winner": "Atlanta Dream" }, { "stage": "R1", "conference": null, "top": "Golden State Valkyries", "bottom": "Dallas Wings", "topSeed": 2, "bottomSeed": 7, "topWins": 2, "bottomWins": 1, "bestOf": 3, "winner": "Golden State Valkyries" }, { "stage": "R1", "conference": null, "top": "Las Vegas Aces", "bottom": "Indiana Fever", "topSeed": 3, "bottomSeed": 6, "topWins": 2, "bottomWins": 1, "bestOf": 3, "winner": "Las Vegas Aces" } ] }, { "key": "SF", "label": "Semifinals", "series": [ { "stage": "SF", "conference": null, "top": "Atlanta Dream", "bottom": "New York Liberty", "topSeed": 4, "bottomSeed": 8, "topWins": 3, "bottomWins": 0, "bestOf": 5, "winner": "Atlanta Dream" }, { "stage": "SF", "conference": null, "top": "Golden State Valkyries", "bottom": "Las Vegas Aces", "topSeed": 2, "bottomSeed": 3, "topWins": 3, "bottomWins": 0, "bestOf": 5, "winner": "Golden State Valkyries" } ] }, { "key": "F", "label": "WNBA Finals", "series": [ { "stage": "F", "conference": null, "top": "Golden State Valkyries", "bottom": "Atlanta Dream", "topSeed": 2, "bottomSeed": 4, "topWins": 3, "bottomWins": 3, "bestOf": 7, "winner": null } ] } ], "champion": null }, "movement": null }