In season
Serie A 2026-27
Serie A 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: ROM 37%. Standings leader: Internazionale · 25 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- ROM 37%
- Standings leader
- Internazionale · 25 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 25 | 16% | 65% | – |
| 2 | Lazio | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 25 | 12% | 60% | <0.1% |
| 3 | Roma | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +15 | 21 | 37% | 86% | – |
| 4 | Como | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +9 | 20 | 27% | 81% | – |
| 5 | Milan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +7 | 18 | 3% | 30% | <0.1% |
| 6 | Frosinone | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 17 | 2% | 19% | 0.2% |
| 7 | Napoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +6 | 14 | 2% | 31% | <0.1% |
| 8 | Juventus | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 | 1% | 17% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Torino | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 | <0.1% | 1% | 6% |
| 10 | Cagliari | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 | – | 0.3% | 10% |
| 11 | Bologna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 | <0.1% | 3% | 2% |
| 12 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 | 0.3% | 6% | 1% |
| 13 | Genoa | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 | – | 0.4% | 9% |
| 14 | Lecce | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 9 | – | – | 37% |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 12% |
| 16 | Monza | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 | – | <0.1% | 38% |
| 17 | Udinese | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 | – | <0.1% | 28% |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | – | <0.1% | 26% |
| 19 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | – | – | 59% |
| 20 | Venezia | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 3 | – | – | 71% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 1 past fixture has no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- The table ranks teams level on points by their head-to-head points and goal difference, then overall goal difference; simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
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