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"2026-10-12T16:30:00Z", "home": "Atalanta", "away": "Venezia", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "52", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-11T18:45:00Z", "home": "Cagliari", "away": "Juventus", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "59", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "home": "Sassuolo", "away": "Milan", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "57", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-11T13:00:00Z", "home": "Lecce", "away": "Bologna", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "56", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-11T13:00:00Z", "home": "Lazio", "away": "Monza", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "53", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-11T10:30:00Z", "home": "Como", "away": "Roma", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "58", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-10T18:45:00Z", "home": "Napoli", "away": "Frosinone", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "55", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-10T16:00:00Z", "home": "Internazionale", "away": "Parma", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "54", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-10T13:00:00Z", "home": "Genoa", "away": "Fiorentina", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "45", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-20T18:45:00Z", "home": "Milan", "away": "Lecce", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "44", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "home": "Juventus", "away": "Atalanta", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "47", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-20T13:00:00Z", "home": "Parma", "away": "Genoa", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "43", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-20T13:00:00Z", "home": "Frosinone", "away": "Como", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "42", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-20T10:30:00Z", "home": "Fiorentina", "away": "Napoli", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "50", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-19T18:45:00Z", "home": "Venezia", "away": "Lazio", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "48", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-19T16:00:00Z", "home": "Roma", "away": "Internazionale", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "49", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-19T13:00:00Z", "home": "Udinese", "away": "Cagliari", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "41", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-19T13:00:00Z", "home": "Bologna", "away": "Torino", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "46", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-18T18:45:00Z", "home": "Monza", "away": "Sassuolo", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "34", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-14T18:45:00Z", "home": "Internazionale", "away": "Udinese", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "39", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-14T16:30:00Z", "home": "Torino", "away": "Roma", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "32", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-14T16:30:00Z", "home": "Como", "away": "Parma", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "38", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-13T18:45:00Z", "home": "Sassuolo", "away": "Juventus", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "37", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-13T16:00:00Z", "home": "Napoli", "away": "Bologna", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "36", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-13T13:00:00Z", "home": "Lecce", "away": "Monza", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "31", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T18:45:00Z", "home": "Atalanta", "away": "Cagliari", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "35", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T16:00:00Z", "home": "Lazio", "away": "Milan", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "33", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T13:00:00Z", "home": "Genoa", "away": "Frosinone", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "40", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-11T18:45:00Z", "home": "Venezia", "away": "Fiorentina", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "30", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-07T18:45:00Z", "home": "Udinese", "away": "Lazio", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "22", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-07T16:30:00Z", "home": "Cagliari", "away": "Lecce", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "27", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-06T18:45:00Z", "home": "Juventus", "away": "Milan", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "21", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-06T16:00:00Z", "home": "Bologna", "away": "Sassuolo", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "28", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-06T13:00:00Z", "home": "Parma", "away": "Monza", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "24", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-06T13:00:00Z", "home": "Frosinone", "away": "Venezia", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "29", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T18:45:00Z", "home": "Roma", "away": "Atalanta", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "26", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T16:00:00Z", "home": "Internazionale", "away": "Napoli", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "23", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T13:00:00Z", "home": "Fiorentina", "away": "Torino", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "25", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-04T18:45:00Z", "home": "Genoa", "away": "Como", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "11", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-31T18:45:00Z", "home": "Atalanta", "away": "Bologna", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "16", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-31T16:30:00Z", "home": "Lecce", "away": "Roma", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "15", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-30T18:45:00Z", "home": "Lazio", "away": "Genoa", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "12", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-30T18:45:00Z", "home": "Cagliari", "away": "Internazionale", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "19", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-30T16:30:00Z", "home": "Napoli", "away": "Como", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "14", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-29T18:45:00Z", "home": "Juventus", "away": "Parma", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "20", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-29T16:30:00Z", "home": "Sassuolo", "away": "Torino", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "18", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-29T16:30:00Z", "home": "Monza", "away": "Udinese", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "13", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-29T16:30:00Z", "home": "Fiorentina", "away": "Frosinone", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "17", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-28T18:45:00Z", "home": "Milan", "away": "Venezia", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "7", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-24T18:45:00Z", "home": "Roma", "away": "Fiorentina", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "2", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-24T16:30:00Z", "home": "Bologna", "away": "Lazio", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "8", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-23T18:45:00Z", "home": "Torino", "away": "Milan", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "1", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-23T18:45:00Z", "home": "Atalanta", "away": "Sassuolo", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "3", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-23T16:30:00Z", "home": "Frosinone", "away": "Juventus", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "10", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-23T16:30:00Z", "home": "Venezia", "away": "Lecce", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "6", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-22T18:45:00Z", "home": "Parma", "away": "Cagliari", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "4", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-22T18:45:00Z", "home": "Genoa", "away": "Napoli", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "9", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-22T16:30:00Z", "home": "Udinese", "away": "Como", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "5", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-22T16:30:00Z", "home": "Internazionale", "away": "Monza", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 1 } ], "analysis": { "method": "Monte Carlo", "simulations": 20000, "model": "Poisson goals model", "modelNotes": [ "Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.", "Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.", "The table ranks teams level on points by their head-to-head points and goal difference, then overall goal difference; simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, then goals scored.", "Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23." ], "probabilities": { "Atalanta": { "title": 0.26, "top4": 5.67, "relegation": 1.11 }, "Bologna": { "title": 0.08, "top4": 2.78, "relegation": 1.92 }, "Cagliari": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.28, "relegation": 9.91 }, "Como": { "title": 26.51, "top4": 81.39, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Fiorentina": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.04, "relegation": 25.5 }, "Frosinone": { "title": 1.63, "top4": 18.91, "relegation": 0.22 }, "Genoa": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.36, "relegation": 8.95 }, "Internazionale": { "title": 16.26, "top4": 65.09, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Juventus": { "title": 1.19, "top4": 17.39, "relegation": 0.12 }, "Lazio": { "title": 11.72, "top4": 59.57, "relegation": 0.01 }, "Lecce": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "relegation": 37.46 }, "Milan": { "title": 3.01, "top4": 29.77, "relegation": 0.03 }, "Monza": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.04, "relegation": 37.64 }, "Napoli": { "title": 2.4, "top4": 30.87, "relegation": 0.01 }, "Parma": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "relegation": 59.44 }, "Roma": { "title": 36.91, "top4": 86.27, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Sassuolo": { "title": 0.01, "top4": 0.34, "relegation": 12.42 }, "Torino": { "title": 0.03, "top4": 1.18, "relegation": 5.88 }, "Udinese": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.04, "relegation": 28.14 }, "Venezia": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.0, "relegation": 71.25 } }, "positions": { "Atalanta": [ 0.26, 0.79, 1.72, 2.9, 5.22, 7.17, 9.77, 12.34, 13.35, 12.23, 10.08, 7.74, 5.72, 3.93, 2.8, 1.93, 0.94, 0.76, 0.26, 0.1 ], "Bologna": [ 0.08, 0.29, 0.76, 1.65, 3.1, 4.92, 7.38, 10.05, 12.33, 13.32, 11.72, 9.63, 7.79, 5.84, 4.38, 3.0, 1.86, 1.18, 0.54, 0.19 ], "Cagliari": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.07, 0.2, 0.44, 1.14, 2.02, 3.36, 5.32, 7.7, 9.68, 11.37, 11.26, 11.56, 10.29, 8.76, 6.9, 5.32, 3.31, 1.27 ], "Como": [ 26.51, 24.22, 18.07, 12.61, 7.9, 4.82, 2.92, 1.7, 0.73, 0.31, 0.14, 0.06, 0.02, 0.01, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Fiorentina": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04, 0.13, 0.42, 0.68, 1.49, 2.34, 3.69, 5.72, 7.51, 8.78, 10.06, 10.92, 11.34, 11.39, 10.36, 9.14, 6.0 ], "Frosinone": [ 1.63, 3.44, 5.49, 8.35, 10.53, 12.34, 12.9, 12.0, 10.22, 7.74, 5.58, 3.74, 2.48, 1.51, 0.9, 0.6, 0.35, 0.13, 0.06, 0.02 ], "Genoa": [ 0.0, 0.02, 0.06, 0.27, 0.5, 1.08, 2.26, 3.7, 5.96, 8.48, 10.51, 11.44, 11.37, 11.25, 9.7, 7.92, 6.5, 4.71, 2.93, 1.31 ], "Internazionale": [ 16.26, 17.58, 16.92, 14.34, 11.08, 8.88, 5.6, 4.15, 2.4, 1.39, 0.76, 0.36, 0.16, 0.07, 0.05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Juventus": [ 1.18, 3.1, 5.32, 7.78, 10.82, 13.5, 14.36, 13.3, 10.63, 7.41, 5.06, 3.26, 1.86, 1.15, 0.64, 0.34, 0.17, 0.08, 0.04, 0.0 ], "Lazio": [ 11.72, 14.82, 16.61, 16.42, 13.2, 9.98, 7.3, 4.44, 2.76, 1.48, 0.66, 0.29, 0.16, 0.08, 0.04, 0.02, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Lecce": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01, 0.08, 0.24, 0.52, 1.06, 1.93, 2.96, 4.71, 6.64, 8.36, 10.37, 12.0, 13.66, 14.16, 13.8, 9.5 ], "Milan": [ 3.01, 5.82, 9.16, 11.78, 13.8, 13.89, 12.92, 10.3, 7.66, 4.88, 2.94, 1.85, 0.96, 0.56, 0.29, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Monza": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04, 0.12, 0.24, 0.53, 1.03, 1.68, 2.39, 3.72, 4.96, 6.4, 7.96, 9.72, 11.09, 12.47, 12.84, 13.43, 11.36 ], "Napoli": [ 2.4, 5.97, 9.67, 12.82, 14.81, 14.37, 12.34, 9.74, 7.09, 4.76, 2.74, 1.62, 0.79, 0.41, 0.28, 0.1, 0.06, 0.01, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Parma": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01, 0.04, 0.07, 0.3, 0.52, 1.21, 1.97, 3.38, 4.69, 6.37, 9.4, 12.62, 16.79, 20.64, 22.0 ], "Roma": [ 36.91, 23.82, 15.78, 9.75, 6.18, 3.57, 2.04, 1.14, 0.46, 0.18, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Sassuolo": [ 0.01, 0.03, 0.05, 0.24, 0.66, 1.08, 1.98, 3.44, 5.44, 7.52, 9.16, 10.7, 10.76, 10.43, 10.04, 8.7, 7.34, 5.66, 4.3, 2.46 ], "Torino": [ 0.02, 0.09, 0.3, 0.76, 1.39, 2.24, 4.06, 6.0, 7.95, 10.41, 11.57, 11.27, 10.89, 9.09, 7.64, 6.0, 4.44, 3.28, 1.86, 0.74 ], "Udinese": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.01, 0.03, 0.12, 0.25, 0.64, 1.14, 2.17, 3.18, 4.88, 6.18, 8.43, 9.82, 11.11, 11.91, 11.98, 11.06, 10.11, 6.97 ], "Venezia": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01, 0.02, 0.01, 0.09, 0.16, 0.48, 0.82, 1.3, 2.14, 3.22, 4.47, 6.76, 9.27, 13.64, 19.56, 38.06 ] }, "expected": { "Atalanta": { "points": 55.1, "position": 9.4 }, "Bologna": { "points": 52.2, "position": 10.4 }, "Cagliari": { "points": 44.5, "position": 13.2 }, "Como": { "points": 78.1, "position": 2.9 }, "Fiorentina": { "points": 39.0, "position": 15.0 }, "Frosinone": { "points": 61.6, "position": 7.3 }, "Genoa": { "points": 44.9, "position": 13.0 }, "Internazionale": { "points": 74.2, "position": 3.9 }, "Juventus": { "points": 61.9, "position": 7.2 }, "Lazio": { "points": 72.6, "position": 4.2 }, "Lecce": { "points": 36.1, "position": 16.1 }, "Milan": { "points": 65.5, "position": 6.1 }, "Monza": { "points": 36.3, "position": 16.0 }, "Napoli": { "points": 65.7, "position": 6.0 }, "Parma": { "points": 31.4, "position": 17.5 }, "Roma": { "points": 80.0, "position": 2.5 }, "Sassuolo": { "points": 44.0, "position": 13.4 }, "Torino": { "points": 47.7, "position": 12.0 }, "Udinese": { "points": 38.1, "position": 15.3 }, "Venezia": { "points": 28.7, "position": 18.2 } }, "ratings": { "Atalanta": { "attack": -0.046, "defence": 0.062 }, "Bologna": { "attack": -0.163, "defence": 0.066 }, "Cagliari": { "attack": -0.413, "defence": -0.045 }, "Como": { "attack": 0.121, "defence": 0.462 }, "Fiorentina": { "attack": -0.286, "defence": -0.118 }, "Frosinone": { "attack": 0.201, "defence": -0.192 }, "Genoa": { "attack": -0.38, "defence": 0.027 }, "Internazionale": { "attack": 0.231, "defence": -0.035 }, "Juventus": 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