In season
Primeira Liga 2026-27
Primeira Liga 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: POR 59%. Standings leader: FC Porto · 27 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- POR 59%
- Standings leader
- FC Porto · 27 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +17 | 27 | 59% | 88% | – |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +18 | 22 | 30% | 73% | – |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 21 | 11% | 37% | – |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +7 | 18 | <0.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| 5 | FC Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 17 | <0.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| 6 | Académico | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 17 | <0.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
| 7 | Gil Vicente FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 8 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Moreirense FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 | – | – | 5% |
| 10 | FC Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 | – | <0.1% | 3% |
| 11 | FC Famalicão | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 10 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 10% |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 | – | <0.1% | 6% |
| 14 | Marítimo M. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 | – | – | 27% |
| 15 | Rio Ave FC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 | – | – | 40% |
| 16 | Casa Pia AC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | – | – | 50% |
| 17 | CD Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 | – | – | 17% |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 | – | – | 41% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 1 past fixture has no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- The table ranks teams level on points by their head-to-head points and goal difference, then overall goal difference; simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
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