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Afonso Henriques", "probabilities": { "home": 0.317, "draw": 0.306, "away": 0.377 } }, { "id": "288", "round": 32, "date": "2027-05-01T23:00:00Z", "home": "Estoril Praia", "away": "Sporting CP", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Ant\u00f3nio Coimbra da Mota", "probabilities": { "home": 0.102, "draw": 0.146, "away": 0.751 } }, { "id": "289", "round": 33, "date": "2027-05-08T23:00:00Z", "home": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "away": "Casa Pia AC", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Municipal de Famalic\u00e3o", "probabilities": { "home": 0.644, "draw": 0.232, "away": 0.124 } }, { "id": "290", "round": 33, "date": "2027-05-08T23:00:00Z", "home": "FC Alverca", "away": "Estoril Praia", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio do FC Alverca", "probabilities": { "home": 0.459, "draw": 0.249, "away": 0.292 } }, { "id": "291", "round": 33, "date": "2027-05-08T23:00:00Z", "home": "FC Arouca", "away": "Gil Vicente FC", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Municipal de Arouca", "probabilities": { "home": 0.363, "draw": 0.279, "away": 0.357 } }, { "id": "292", "round": 33, "date": "2027-05-08T23:00:00Z", "home": "SC Braga", "away": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Municipal de Braga", "probabilities": { "home": 0.675, "draw": 0.187, "away": 0.139 } }, { "id": "293", "round": 33, "date": "2027-05-08T23:00:00Z", "home": "Acad\u00e9mico", "away": "Moreirense FC", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Municipal do Fontelo", "probabilities": { "home": 0.499, "draw": 0.254, "away": 0.248 } }, { "id": "294", "round": 33, "date": "2027-05-08T23:00:00Z", "home": "CD Nacional", "away": "FC Porto", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio da Madeira", "probabilities": { "home": 0.089, "draw": 0.186, "away": 0.725 } }, { "id": "295", "round": 33, "date": "2027-05-08T23:00:00Z", "home": "Estrela Amadora", "away": "Santa Clara", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Jos\u00e9 Gomes", "probabilities": { "home": 0.282, "draw": 0.27, "away": 0.448 } }, { "id": "296", "round": 33, "date": "2027-05-08T23:00:00Z", "home": "Sporting CP", "away": "SL Benfica", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Jos\u00e9 Alvalade", "probabilities": { "home": 0.398, "draw": 0.23, "away": 0.371 } }, { "id": "297", "round": 33, "date": "2027-05-08T23:00:00Z", "home": "Rio Ave FC", "away": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube", "probabilities": { "home": 0.272, "draw": 0.258, "away": 0.469 } }, { "id": "298", "round": 34, "date": "2027-05-15T23:00:00Z", "home": "Casa Pia AC", "away": "Acad\u00e9mico", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Municipal de Rio Maior", "probabilities": { "home": 0.21, "draw": 0.264, "away": 0.527 } }, { "id": "299", "round": 34, "date": "2027-05-15T23:00:00Z", "home": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "away": "FC Alverca", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio do Mar\u00edtimo", "probabilities": { "home": 0.303, "draw": 0.25, "away": 0.447 } }, { "id": "300", "round": 34, "date": "2027-05-15T23:00:00Z", "home": "Estoril Praia", "away": "Estrela Amadora", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Ant\u00f3nio Coimbra da Mota", "probabilities": { "home": 0.422, "draw": 0.237, "away": 0.341 } }, { "id": "301", "round": 34, "date": "2027-05-15T23:00:00Z", "home": "SL Benfica", "away": "FC Arouca", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica", "probabilities": { "home": 0.743, "draw": 0.153, "away": 0.104 } }, { "id": "302", "round": 34, "date": "2027-05-15T23:00:00Z", "home": "FC Porto", "away": "SC Braga", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio do Drag\u00e3o", "probabilities": { "home": 0.634, "draw": 0.226, "away": 0.14 } }, { "id": "303", "round": 34, "date": "2027-05-15T23:00:00Z", "home": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "away": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio D. Afonso Henriques", "probabilities": { "home": 0.281, "draw": 0.289, "away": 0.43 } }, { "id": "304", "round": 34, "date": "2027-05-15T23:00:00Z", "home": "Gil Vicente FC", "away": "CD Nacional", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio Cidade de Barcelos", "probabilities": { "home": 0.514, "draw": 0.269, "away": 0.216 } }, { "id": "305", "round": 34, "date": "2027-05-15T23:00:00Z", "home": "Moreirense FC", "away": "Rio Ave FC", "venue": "Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Fr", "probabilities": { "home": 0.504, "draw": 0.245, "away": 0.251 } }, { "id": "306", "round": 34, "date": "2027-05-15T23:00:00Z", "home": "Santa Clara", "away": "Sporting CP", "venue": "Est\u00e1dio de S\u00e3o Miguel", "probabilities": { "home": 0.19, "draw": 0.237, "away": 0.573 } } ], "results": [ { "id": "85", "round": 10, "date": "2026-10-30T20:15:00Z", "home": "Casa Pia AC", "away": "Sporting CP", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "79", "round": 9, "date": "2026-10-26T18:45:00Z", "home": "Santa Clara", "away": "SL Benfica", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "80", "round": 9, "date": "2026-10-25T20:30:00Z", "home": "Sporting CP", "away": "Acad\u00e9mico", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "78", "round": 9, "date": "2026-10-25T18:00:00Z", "home": "Rio Ave FC", "away": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "77", "round": 9, "date": "2026-10-25T18:00:00Z", "home": "CD Nacional", "away": "SC Braga", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "75", "round": 9, "date": "2026-10-25T15:30:00Z", "home": "Estoril Praia", "away": "Moreirense FC", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "76", "round": 9, "date": "2026-10-24T19:30:00Z", "home": "Gil Vicente FC", "away": "FC Porto", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "73", "round": 9, "date": "2026-10-24T17:00:00Z", "home": "FC Alverca", "away": "FC Arouca", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "74", "round": 9, "date": "2026-10-24T14:30:00Z", "home": "Estrela Amadora", "away": "Casa Pia AC", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "81", "round": 9, "date": "2026-10-23T19:45:00Z", "home": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "away": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "13", "round": 2, "date": "2026-10-19T19:15:00Z", "home": "SC Braga", "away": "Gil Vicente FC", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "68", "round": 8, "date": "2026-10-12T19:15:00Z", "home": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "away": "FC Alverca", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "65", "round": 8, "date": "2026-10-11T19:30:00Z", "home": "FC Arouca", "away": "Estrela Amadora", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "72", "round": 8, "date": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z", "home": "SL Benfica", "away": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "71", "round": 8, "date": "2026-10-11T14:30:00Z", "home": "Rio Ave FC", "away": "CD Nacional", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "67", "round": 8, "date": "2026-10-10T19:30:00Z", "home": "Casa Pia AC", "away": "Santa Clara", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "64", "round": 8, "date": "2026-10-10T19:30:00Z", "home": "Acad\u00e9mico", "away": "Estoril Praia", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "69", "round": 8, "date": "2026-10-10T17:00:00Z", "home": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "away": "FC Porto", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "66", "round": 8, "date": "2026-10-09T19:15:00Z", "home": "SC Braga", "away": "Sporting CP", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "70", "round": 8, "date": "2026-10-09T17:45:00Z", "home": "Moreirense FC", "away": "Gil Vicente FC", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "60", "round": 7, "date": "2026-09-20T19:30:00Z", "home": "FC Porto", "away": "SL Benfica", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "61", "round": 7, "date": "2026-09-20T17:00:00Z", "home": "Santa Clara", "away": "SC Braga", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "57", "round": 7, "date": "2026-09-20T17:00:00Z", "home": "Estoril Praia", "away": "Casa Pia AC", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "63", "round": 7, "date": "2026-09-20T14:30:00Z", "home": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "away": "Moreirense FC", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "56", "round": 7, "date": "2026-09-20T14:30:00Z", "home": "Estrela Amadora", "away": "Acad\u00e9mico", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "62", "round": 7, "date": "2026-09-19T19:30:00Z", "home": "Sporting CP", "away": "FC Arouca", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "55", "round": 7, "date": "2026-09-19T17:00:00Z", "home": "FC Alverca", "away": "Rio Ave FC", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "59", "round": 7, "date": "2026-09-19T14:30:00Z", "home": "CD Nacional", "away": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "58", "round": 7, "date": "2026-09-19T14:30:00Z", "home": "Gil Vicente FC", "away": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "48", "round": 6, "date": "2026-09-14T19:45:00Z", "home": "SC Braga", "away": "Estoril Praia", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "51", "round": 6, "date": "2026-09-14T19:15:00Z", "home": "Moreirense FC", "away": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "53", "round": 6, "date": "2026-09-14T17:45:00Z", "home": "Rio Ave FC", "away": "Estrela Amadora", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "50", "round": 6, "date": "2026-09-13T19:30:00Z", "home": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "away": "Sporting CP", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "54", "round": 6, "date": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z", "home": "SL Benfica", "away": "Gil Vicente FC", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "47", "round": 6, "date": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z", "home": "FC Arouca", "away": "Santa Clara", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "46", "round": 6, "date": "2026-09-12T19:30:00Z", "home": "Acad\u00e9mico", "away": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "49", "round": 6, "date": "2026-09-12T17:00:00Z", "home": "Casa Pia AC", "away": "FC Porto", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "52", "round": 6, "date": "2026-09-12T14:30:00Z", "home": "CD Nacional", "away": "FC Alverca", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "19", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-10T19:15:00Z", "home": "Estrela Amadora", "away": "SC Braga", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "23", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-09T19:45:00Z", "home": "Moreirense FC", "away": "SL Benfica", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "39", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-07T19:15:00Z", "home": "Estoril Praia", "away": "FC Arouca", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "40", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-06T19:30:00Z", "home": "Gil Vicente FC", "away": "Acad\u00e9mico", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "45", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-06T17:00:00Z", "home": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "away": "Casa Pia AC", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "43", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-06T14:30:00Z", "home": "Santa Clara", "away": "Rio Ave FC", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "44", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-05T19:30:00Z", "home": "Sporting CP", "away": "CD Nacional", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "41", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-05T17:00:00Z", "home": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "away": "SL Benfica", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "37", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-05T17:00:00Z", "home": "FC Alverca", "away": "SC Braga", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "38", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-05T14:30:00Z", "home": "Estrela Amadora", "away": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "42", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-04T19:15:00Z", "home": "FC Porto", "away": "Moreirense FC", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "36", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-31T19:15:00Z", "home": "SL Benfica", "away": "Estoril Praia", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "31", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-31T19:15:00Z", "home": "SC Braga", "away": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "33", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-30T19:30:00Z", "home": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "away": "Gil Vicente FC", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "32", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-30T17:00:00Z", "home": "Casa Pia AC", "away": "Moreirense FC", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "34", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-30T14:30:00Z", "home": "CD Nacional", "away": "Estrela Amadora", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "28", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-29T17:00:00Z", "home": "Acad\u00e9mico", "away": "FC Porto", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "30", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-29T14:30:00Z", "home": "FC Arouca", "away": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "29", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-29T14:30:00Z", "home": "FC Alverca", "away": "Santa Clara", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "35", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-28T19:15:00Z", "home": "Rio Ave FC", "away": "Sporting CP", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "21", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-24T19:15:00Z", "home": "Gil Vicente FC", "away": "Casa Pia AC", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "24", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-23T19:30:00Z", "home": "FC Porto", "away": "FC Arouca", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "25", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-23T17:00:00Z", "home": "Santa Clara", "away": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "27", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-23T14:30:00Z", "home": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "away": "CD Nacional", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "26", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-22T19:30:00Z", "home": "Sporting CP", "away": "FC Alverca", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "20", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-22T17:00:00Z", "home": "Estoril Praia", "away": "Rio Ave FC", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "22", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-22T14:30:00Z", "home": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "away": "Acad\u00e9mico", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "14", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-17T19:15:00Z", "home": "Casa Pia AC", "away": "SL Benfica", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 7 }, { "id": "15", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-16T19:30:00Z", "home": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "away": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "12", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-16T17:00:00Z", "home": "FC Arouca", "away": "Moreirense FC", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "16", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-16T14:30:00Z", "home": "CD Nacional", "away": "Estoril Praia", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "17", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-15T19:30:00Z", "home": "Rio Ave FC", "away": "FC Porto", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "10", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-15T17:00:00Z", "home": "Acad\u00e9mico", "away": "Santa Clara", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "11", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-15T14:30:00Z", "home": "FC Alverca", "away": "Estrela Amadora", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "18", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-14T19:15:00Z", "home": "Sporting CP", "away": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "7", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-10T19:15:00Z", "home": "Santa Clara", "away": "CD Nacional", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "8", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-09T19:30:00Z", "home": "SL Benfica", "away": "Acad\u00e9mico", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "5", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-09T19:30:00Z", "home": "Moreirense FC", "away": "SC Braga", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "3", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-09T19:30:00Z", "home": "Gil Vicente FC", "away": "Rio Ave FC", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "6", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-09T17:00:00Z", "home": "FC Porto", "away": "FC Alverca", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "1", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-08T19:30:00Z", "home": "Estrela Amadora", "away": "Sporting CP", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "9", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-08T17:00:00Z", "home": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "away": "FC Arouca", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "4", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-08T14:30:00Z", "home": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "away": "Casa Pia AC", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "2", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-07T19:15:00Z", "home": "Estoril Praia", "away": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 } ], "analysis": { "method": "Monte Carlo", "simulations": 20000, "model": "Poisson goals model", "modelNotes": [ "Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.", "Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.", "The table ranks teams level on points by their head-to-head points and goal difference, then overall goal difference; simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, then goals scored.", "Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23." ], "probabilities": { "Acad\u00e9mico": { "title": 0.03, "top2": 0.43, "relegation": 0.06 }, "CD Nacional": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 17.27 }, "Casa Pia AC": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 50.08 }, "Estoril Praia": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 40.54 }, "Estrela Amadora": { "title": 0.01, "top2": 0.01, "relegation": 10.1 }, "FC Alverca": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.01, "relegation": 2.61 }, "FC Arouca": { "title": 0.01, "top2": 0.33, "relegation": 0.07 }, "FC Famalic\u00e3o": { "title": 0.01, "top2": 0.11, "relegation": 0.3 }, "FC Porto": { "title": 58.6, "top2": 87.94, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Gil Vicente FC": { "title": 0.03, "top2": 0.19, "relegation": 0.15 }, "Mar\u00edtimo M.": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 27.44 }, "Moreirense FC": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 5.42 }, "Rio Ave FC": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 39.96 }, "SC Braga": { "title": 0.01, "top2": 0.29, "relegation": 0.18 }, "SL Benfica": { "title": 30.43, "top2": 73.45, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Santa Clara": { "title": 0.06, "top2": 0.5, "relegation": 0.04 }, "Sporting CP": { "title": 10.8, "top2": 36.72, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Vit\u00f3ria SC": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.01, "relegation": 5.75 } }, "positions": { "Acad\u00e9mico": [ 0.03, 0.4, 3.34, 17.95, 16.2, 14.32, 12.9, 10.51, 8.24, 5.92, 4.32, 2.62, 1.76, 0.86, 0.4, 0.18, 0.06, 0.0 ], "CD Nacional": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.01, 0.15, 0.3, 0.74, 1.38, 2.32, 3.48, 5.24, 7.86, 9.96, 12.44, 13.13, 13.52, 12.21, 10.42, 6.84 ], "Casa Pia AC": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02, 0.02, 0.04, 0.13, 0.22, 0.56, 1.3, 2.08, 3.54, 5.16, 8.76, 11.76, 16.36, 21.87, 28.2 ], "Estoril Praia": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02, 0.12, 0.21, 0.38, 0.92, 1.38, 2.29, 3.7, 5.38, 7.58, 9.37, 12.5, 15.59, 18.32, 22.23 ], "Estrela Amadora": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.05, 0.43, 0.98, 1.79, 2.65, 4.01, 6.34, 8.03, 10.07, 11.74, 12.35, 12.09, 10.42, 8.94, 6.4, 3.7 ], "FC Alverca": [ 0.0, 0.02, 0.19, 2.13, 3.42, 5.5, 6.92, 8.82, 10.54, 12.1, 12.02, 11.52, 8.99, 7.11, 4.95, 3.15, 1.82, 0.79 ], "FC Arouca": [ 0.02, 0.31, 2.56, 14.02, 14.33, 14.34, 12.86, 11.46, 9.82, 7.72, 4.95, 3.28, 2.22, 1.16, 0.64, 0.24, 0.06, 0.01 ], "FC Famalic\u00e3o": [ 0.01, 0.1, 1.07, 8.3, 11.12, 12.31, 12.9, 12.78, 12.06, 9.78, 7.16, 5.02, 3.46, 1.98, 1.11, 0.55, 0.23, 0.08 ], "FC Porto": [ 58.6, 29.34, 10.95, 0.94, 0.13, 0.03, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Gil Vicente FC": [ 0.02, 0.17, 2.04, 11.18, 13.36, 13.46, 13.64, 12.3, 10.38, 8.18, 6.22, 3.96, 2.48, 1.46, 0.71, 0.3, 0.12, 0.03 ], "Mar\u00edtimo M.": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08, 0.14, 0.44, 0.83, 1.46, 2.24, 3.84, 5.88, 7.5, 10.06, 12.22, 13.17, 14.68, 14.51, 12.93 ], "Moreirense FC": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.08, 0.82, 1.68, 2.79, 3.94, 5.93, 8.3, 10.26, 12.0, 12.54, 11.86, 10.26, 8.42, 5.69, 3.71, 1.72 ], "Rio Ave FC": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03, 0.04, 0.18, 0.36, 0.72, 1.2, 2.3, 3.2, 5.21, 7.13, 10.17, 13.32, 16.18, 18.57, 21.39 ], "SC Braga": [ 0.01, 0.29, 2.17, 13.68, 14.8, 14.09, 12.92, 11.88, 9.79, 7.56, 5.08, 3.24, 2.17, 1.18, 0.61, 0.33, 0.14, 0.04 ], "SL Benfica": [ 30.43, 43.02, 22.9, 2.64, 0.59, 0.29, 0.1, 0.02, 0.02, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Santa Clara": [ 0.06, 0.44, 3.8, 18.46, 18.34, 15.62, 13.14, 10.08, 7.39, 4.98, 3.58, 2.21, 1.05, 0.53, 0.21, 0.06, 0.04, 0.0 ], "Sporting CP": [ 10.8, 25.92, 50.76, 8.28, 2.64, 0.9, 0.4, 0.21, 0.06, 0.02, 0.01, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Vit\u00f3ria SC": [ 0.0, 0.02, 0.06, 0.88, 1.8, 2.96, 4.56, 6.35, 8.22, 10.48, 11.86, 12.28, 11.29, 9.7, 8.26, 5.52, 3.72, 2.04 ] }, "expected": { "Acad\u00e9mico": { "points": 53.0, "position": 6.8 }, "CD Nacional": { "points": 34.0, "position": 13.7 }, "Casa Pia AC": { "points": 27.4, "position": 15.9 }, "Estoril Praia": { "points": 28.8, "position": 15.3 }, "Estrela Amadora": { "points": 36.9, "position": 12.6 }, "FC Alverca": { "points": 42.3, "position": 10.5 }, "FC Arouca": { "points": 51.5, "position": 7.2 }, "FC Famalic\u00e3o": { "points": 48.5, "position": 8.1 }, "FC Porto": { "points": 81.9, "position": 1.5 }, "Gil Vicente FC": { "points": 50.5, "position": 7.5 }, "Mar\u00edtimo M.": { "points": 32.0, "position": 14.5 }, "Moreirense FC": { "points": 39.3, "position": 11.7 }, "Rio Ave FC": { "points": 29.4, "position": 15.4 }, "SC Braga": { "points": 51.2, "position": 7.3 }, "SL Benfica": { "points": 77.6, "position": 2.0 }, "Santa Clara": { "points": 53.5, "position": 6.5 }, "Sporting CP": { "points": 71.9, "position": 2.7 }, "Vit\u00f3ria SC": { "points": 39.1, "position": 11.6 } }, "ratings": { "Acad\u00e9mico": { "attack": -0.029, "defence": -0.008 }, "CD Nacional": { "attack": -0.204, "defence": -0.167 }, "Casa Pia AC": { "attack": -0.509, "defence": -0.23 }, "Estoril Praia": { "attack": -0.107, "defence": -0.253 }, "Estrela Amadora": { "attack": -0.065, "defence": -0.296 }, "FC Alverca": { "attack": -0.11, "defence": -0.1 }, "FC Arouca": { "attack": 0.036, "defence": -0.083 }, "FC Famalic\u00e3o": { "attack": -0.015, "defence": 0.22 }, "FC Porto": { "attack": 0.357, "defence": 0.695 }, "Gil Vicente FC": { "attack": -0.115, "defence": 0.177 }, "Mar\u00edtimo M.": { "attack": -0.198, "defence": -0.361 }, "Moreirense FC": { "attack": -0.179, "defence": -0.163 }, "Rio Ave FC": { "attack": -0.271, "defence": -0.368 }, "SC Braga": { "attack": 0.13, "defence": 0.096 }, "SL Benfica": { "attack": 0.567, "defence": 0.35 }, "Santa Clara": { "attack": -0.164, "defence": 0.209 }, "Sporting CP": { "attack": 0.558, "defence": 0.278 }, "Vit\u00f3ria SC": { "attack": -0.154, "defence": -0.035 } } }, "matchesThatMatter": [ { "fixtureId": "82", "date": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "home": "Acad\u00e9mico", "away": "Rio Ave FC", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Rio Ave FC", "swing": 20.6, "ifHome": 46.0, "ifDraw": 35.7, "ifAway": 25.4 }, { "fixtureId": "90", "date": "2026-11-02T20:15:00Z", "home": "SL Benfica", "away": "FC Alverca", "tier": "top2", "tierLabel": "Top 2", "team": "SL Benfica", "swing": 20.3, "ifHome": 77.0, "ifDraw": 65.3, "ifAway": 56.7 }, { "fixtureId": "89", "date": "2026-10-31T20:30:00Z", "home": "FC Porto", "away": "Estoril Praia", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Estoril Praia", "swing": 19.3, "ifHome": 43.2, "ifDraw": 33.1, "ifAway": 24.0 }, { "fixtureId": "87", "date": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "home": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "away": "Santa Clara", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Mar\u00edtimo M.", "swing": 17.2, "ifHome": 16.5, "ifDraw": 25.3, "ifAway": 33.7 }, { "fixtureId": "83", "date": "2026-11-01T15:30:00Z", "home": "FC Arouca", "away": "CD Nacional", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "CD Nacional", "swing": 13.7, "ifHome": 22.3, "ifDraw": 15.3, "ifAway": 8.7 }, { "fixtureId": "95", "date": "2026-11-07T15:30:00Z", "home": "CD Nacional", "away": "Acad\u00e9mico", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "CD Nacional", "swing": 12.4, "ifHome": 10.0, "ifDraw": 17.3, "ifAway": 22.5 }, { "fixtureId": "88", "date": "2026-10-31T15:30:00Z", "home": "Moreirense FC", "away": "Estrela Amadora", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Estrela Amadora", "swing": 9.1, "ifHome": 14.4, "ifDraw": 9.2, "ifAway": 5.3 }, { "fixtureId": "86", "date": "2026-11-02T20:15:00Z", "home": "Gil Vicente FC", "away": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Vit\u00f3ria SC", "swing": 5.3, "ifHome": 8.0, "ifDraw": 4.9, "ifAway": 2.7 }, { "fixtureId": "94", "date": "2026-11-06T20:45:00Z", "home": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "away": "FC Arouca", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Rio Ave FC", "swing": 1.5, "ifHome": 40.3, "ifDraw": 38.9, "ifAway": 40.4 }, { "fixtureId": "84", "date": "2026-11-01T20:30:00Z", "home": "SC Braga", "away": "FC Famalic\u00e3o", "tier": "top2", "tierLabel": "Top 2", "team": "Sporting CP", "swing": 1.4, "ifHome": 36.3, "ifDraw": 37.7, "ifAway": 36.4 } ], "movement": { "since": "2026-10-28T13:56:52Z", "changes": { "Acad\u00e9mico": { "title": -0.03, "top2": -0.07, "relegation": -0.01 }, "CD Nacional": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": -0.65 }, "Casa Pia AC": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 2.0 }, "Estoril Praia": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": -0.64 }, "Estrela Amadora": { "title": 0.01, "top2": 0.01, "relegation": 0.21 }, "FC Alverca": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.01, "relegation": 0.13 }, "FC Arouca": { "title": -0.01, "top2": -0.03, "relegation": -0.09 }, "FC Famalic\u00e3o": { "title": 0.0, "top2": -0.03, "relegation": -0.02 }, "FC Porto": { "title": -0.59, "top2": -0.89, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Gil Vicente FC": { "title": 0.02, "top2": -0.05, "relegation": 0.02 }, "Mar\u00edtimo M.": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 0.06 }, "Moreirense FC": { "title": 0.0, "top2": -0.01, "relegation": -0.49 }, "Rio Ave FC": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": -0.46 }, "SC Braga": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.03, "relegation": 0.06 }, "SL Benfica": { "title": -0.42, "top2": -1.0, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Santa Clara": { "title": 0.0, "top2": -0.01, "relegation": 0.02 }, "Sporting CP": { "title": 1.0, "top2": 2.02, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Vit\u00f3ria SC": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": -0.16 } } } }