In season
NFL 2026
NFL 2026: in season standings and model probabilities. Playoffs favourite: SF 94%. Standings leader: Minnesota Vikings · 6 wins. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Playoffs favourite
- SF 94%
- Standings leader
- Minnesota Vikings · 6 wins
| Rank | Team | Group | W | L | T | PCT | DIFF | DIV | STRK | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 seed | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | NFC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | +51 | 2-0 | W6 | 92% | 62% | 40% | 9% |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | NFC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0.857 | +58 | 3-0 | L1 | 94% | 73% | 35% | 10% |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | AFC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.833 | +40 | 3-0 | L1 | 85% | 56% | 20% | 5% |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | AFC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.833 | +26 | 0-1 | W2 | 86% | 61% | 22% | 7% |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | AFC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.714 | +3 | 1-1 | W3 | 76% | 39% | 11% | 5% |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | NFC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.714 | +37 | 0-2 | W2 | 71% | 17% | 8% | 6% |
| 7 | Cleveland Browns | AFC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.714 | -13 | 2-0 | W2 | 47% | 17% | 2% | 1% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.714 | +15 | 1-1 | W3 | 68% | 30% | 7% | 4% |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | NFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.667 | +19 | 1-0 | W2 | 57% | 14% | 6% | 3% |
| 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.667 | +50 | 0-1 | L1 | 90% | 85% | 16% | 10% |
| 11 | Cincinnati Bengals | AFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.667 | +41 | 1-1 | W2 | 78% | 44% | 12% | 7% |
| 12 | New York Giants | NFC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.643 | +2 | 1-0-1 | W1 | 59% | 55% | 2% | 1% |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers | NFC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.625 | +7 | 1-2 | W1 | 52% | 6% | 2% | 3% |
| 14 | New England Patriots | AFC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0.571 | +17 | 2-0 | L1 | 75% | 37% | 8% | 7% |
| 15 | Baltimore Ravens | AFC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0.571 | +2 | 0-2 | L2 | 36% | 9% | 1% | 1% |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | NFC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0.571 | +43 | 1-1 | W1 | 70% | 22% | 6% | 9% |
| 17 | Atlanta Falcons | NFC | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.429 | -2 | 1-1 | W1 | 47% | 42% | 0.8% | 2% |
| 18 | Los Angeles Rams | NFC | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.429 | +11 | 0-2 | W1 | 37% | 5% | 0.9% | 3% |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | NFC | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.429 | -15 | 1-1 | L2 | 23% | 20% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| 20 | Dallas Cowboys | NFC | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.429 | +9 | 2-1 | W1 | 36% | 30% | 0.4% | 1% |
| 21 | Las Vegas Raiders | AFC | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.429 | -14 | 1-1 | L4 | 16% | 4% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.286 | +11 | 1-0 | W1 | 31% | 28% | <0.1% | 1% |
| 23 | New York Jets | AFC | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.286 | -13 | 0-2 | L2 | 6% | 1% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| 24 | Houston Texans | AFC | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.286 | -5 | 2-1 | L1 | 24% | 10% | 0.1% | 1% |
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | NFC | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.286 | -32 | 0-1 | L1 | 12% | 10% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| 26 | Indianapolis Colts | AFC | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.286 | -26 | 1-1 | L3 | 9% | 5% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| 27 | Philadelphia Eagles | NFC | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.286 | -48 | 1-1 | L5 | 10% | 9% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| 28 | Arizona Cardinals | NFC | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.286 | -66 | 1-2 | L1 | 2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 29 | Washington Commanders | NFC | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.250 | -40 | 0-2-1 | L1 | 7% | 6% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
| 30 | Miami Dolphins | AFC | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0.167 | -59 | 1-0 | W1 | 2% | 0.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | AFC | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.143 | -48 | 1-1 | L1 | 0.7% | 0.5% | – | <0.1% |
| 32 | Los Angeles Chargers | AFC | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.000 | -61 | 0-3 | L6 | 0.7% | <0.1% | – | <0.1% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Margin ratings model.
Model notes
- Team ratings come from score margins (capped at 21) with home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 120-day half-life; last season counts 1x as much on top.
- The rest of the regular season is simulated 20,000 times, letting team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), then the playoffs are simulated from each simulated table for title odds.
- Tiebreakers are simplified: win percentage, then division or conference record; head-to-head and common-games rules are not modelled.
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