In season
Ligue 2 2026-27
Ligue 2 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: STE 64%. Standings leader: AS Saint-Étienne · 25 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- STE 64%
- Standings leader
- AS Saint-Étienne · 25 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Promotion | Top 5 | Relegation | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Saint-Étienne | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +15 | 25 | 64% | 84% | 99% | – | – |
| 2 | Montpellier Hérault SC | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +7 | 21 | 17% | 49% | 91% | – | – |
| 3 | Pau FC | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +5 | 20 | 2% | 10% | 53% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| 4 | AS Nancy Lorraine | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 19 | 3% | 13% | 61% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 5 | Stade de Reims | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | +8 | 18 | 11% | 32% | 80% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 6 | Red Star FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 17 | 0.9% | 4% | 34% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 7 | FC Annecy | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 16 | 0.7% | 3% | 29% | 0.3% | 1% |
| 8 | Dijon FCO | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 | 0.4% | 2% | 24% | 1% | 2% |
| 9 | FC Metz | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | <0.1% | 0.6% | 9% | 3% | 6% |
| 10 | Rodez Aveyron Football | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 4% | 8% | 15% |
| 11 | USL Dunkerque | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 5% | 5% | 10% |
| 12 | En Avant Guingamp | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 11 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 6% | 6% | 11% |
| 13 | FC Sochaux-Montbéliard | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 | – | <0.1% | 2% | 13% | 23% |
| 14 | US Boulogne CO | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 10 | – | <0.1% | 2% | 8% | 16% |
| 15 | FC Nantes | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 9 | – | <0.1% | 0.6% | 25% | 40% |
| 16 | Stade Lavallois MFC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 9 | – | <0.1% | 0.2% | 44% | 58% |
| 17 | Clermont Foot 63 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 3 | -5 | 8 | – | – | 0.3% | 33% | 49% |
| 18 | Grenoble Foot 38 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 | – | – | <0.1% | 54% | 68% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 1 past fixture has no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this season with a 240-day half-life.
- FixtureDownload has no Ligue 2 season before 2026-27, so every team, promoted or relegated, started this season from the same average rating, and ratings are held closer to it than usual (backtests without a previous season scored better that way).
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- Teams level on points are ranked by goal difference, then head-to-head points, then head-to-head goal difference (once they have met home and away), then overall goals scored, then wins, then away wins; simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
- There is no earlier Ligue 2 season in the feed to backtest on. With the previous season removed, eight other leagues' 2023-24 to 2025-26 week-ahead predictions scored 0.194-0.222 (ranked probability score) against 0.229-0.235 for home/draw/away base rates, 0.002-0.008 worse than with it. This season's first 63 Ligue 2 matches scored 0.234 against 0.221 for base rates, so treat early match predictions with care.
- Away wins are the last tiebreak step modelled; the league then compares disciplinary points, which the feed does not have, and the table falls back to club names.
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