In season
Eredivisie 2026-27
Eredivisie 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: PSV 44%. Standings leader: Feyenoord · 24 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- PSV 44%
- Standings leader
- Feyenoord · 24 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +21 | 24 | 36% | 65% | – |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +16 | 21 | 12% | 31% | – |
| 3 | PSV | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +15 | 20 | 44% | 73% | – |
| 4 | FC Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 20 | 6% | 19% | <0.1% |
| 5 | AZ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +8 | 20 | 2% | 6% | <0.1% |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 | <0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 7 | sc Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 15 | 0.4% | 2% | 0.1% |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 15 | 0.4% | 2% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | <0.1% | 0.4% | 1% |
| 10 | SC Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 9% |
| 11 | N.E.C. Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 12 | Excelsior Rotterdam | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 4% |
| 13 | FC Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2% |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 | – | – | 19% |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 | – | <0.1% | 29% |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 | – | <0.1% | 12% |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 | – | – | 28% |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 | – | – | 95% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 2 past fixtures have no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
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