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Nijmegen", "away": "Excelsior Rotterdam", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "45", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-06T14:45:00Z", "home": "ADO Den Haag", "away": "Fortuna Sittard", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "41", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-06T12:30:00Z", "home": "sc Heerenveen", "away": "AZ", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "39", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-06T12:30:00Z", "home": "Telstar", "away": "SC Cambuur", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "37", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-06T10:15:00Z", "home": "FC Groningen", "away": "FC Twente", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "44", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-05T19:00:00Z", "home": "Willem II", "away": "Excelsior Rotterdam", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "40", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-05T18:00:00Z", "home": "Ajax", "away": "PSV", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "42", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-05T14:30:00Z", "home": "N.E.C. Nijmegen", "away": "Feyenoord", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "43", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-04T18:00:00Z", "home": "Sparta Rotterdam", "away": "PEC Zwolle", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "36", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-30T18:00:00Z", "home": "SC Cambuur", "away": "FC Twente", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "35", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-30T14:45:00Z", "home": "Telstar", "away": "Ajax", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "33", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-30T12:30:00Z", "home": "Willem II", "away": "sc Heerenveen", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "32", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-30T12:30:00Z", "home": "Feyenoord", "away": "ADO Den Haag", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "31", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-30T10:15:00Z", "home": "FC Utrecht", "away": "PSV", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 6 }, { "id": "30", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-29T19:00:00Z", "home": "PEC Zwolle", "away": "N.E.C. Nijmegen", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "29", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-29T16:45:00Z", "home": "AZ", "away": "Go Ahead Eagles", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "28", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-29T14:30:00Z", "home": "Excelsior Rotterdam", "away": "Sparta Rotterdam", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "34", "round": 4, "date": "2026-08-28T18:00:00Z", "home": "FC Groningen", "away": "Fortuna Sittard", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "26", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-23T14:45:00Z", "home": "SC Cambuur", "away": "Feyenoord", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 5 }, { "id": "19", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-23T12:30:00Z", "home": "PSV", "away": "FC Groningen", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "22", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-23T10:15:00Z", "home": "Go Ahead Eagles", "away": "ADO Den Haag", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "24", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-22T19:00:00Z", "home": "sc Heerenveen", "away": "PEC Zwolle", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "20", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-22T16:45:00Z", "home": "Sparta Rotterdam", "away": "FC Utrecht", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "21", "round": 3, "date": "2026-08-22T14:30:00Z", "home": "Fortuna Sittard", "away": "AZ", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "14", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-16T14:45:00Z", "home": "Ajax", "away": "sc Heerenveen", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "13", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-16T12:30:00Z", "home": "Feyenoord", "away": "Go Ahead Eagles", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "10", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-16T12:30:00Z", "home": "FC Twente", "away": "PEC Zwolle", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "17", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-16T10:15:00Z", "home": "ADO Den Haag", "away": "FC Groningen", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "18", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-15T19:00:00Z", "home": "Fortuna Sittard", "away": "SC Cambuur", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "16", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-15T18:00:00Z", "home": "Excelsior Rotterdam", "away": "PSV", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "12", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-15T16:45:00Z", "home": "FC Utrecht", "away": "AZ", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "11", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-15T14:30:00Z", "home": "Willem II", "away": "N.E.C. Nijmegen", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "15", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-14T18:00:00Z", "home": "Telstar", "away": "Sparta Rotterdam", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "8", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-09T14:45:00Z", "home": "sc Heerenveen", "away": "FC Twente", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "9", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-09T12:30:00Z", "home": "FC Groningen", "away": "FC Utrecht", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "2", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-09T12:30:00Z", "home": "PEC Zwolle", "away": "Ajax", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "1", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-09T10:15:00Z", "home": "Sparta Rotterdam", "away": "Feyenoord", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "4", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-08T19:00:00Z", "home": "AZ", "away": "ADO Den Haag", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "5", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-08T18:00:00Z", "home": "PSV", "away": "Fortuna Sittard", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "7", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-08T16:45:00Z", "home": "Go Ahead Eagles", "away": "Willem II", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "3", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-08T14:30:00Z", "home": "N.E.C. Nijmegen", "away": "Telstar", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "6", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-07T18:00:00Z", "home": "SC Cambuur", "away": "Excelsior Rotterdam", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 4 } ], "analysis": { "method": "Monte Carlo", "simulations": 20000, "model": "Poisson goals model", "modelNotes": [ "Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.", "Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.", "Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored.", "Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23." ], "probabilities": { "ADO Den Haag": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 28.39 }, "AZ": { "title": 1.52, "top2": 6.36, "relegation": 0.01 }, "Ajax": { "title": 11.66, "top2": 30.84, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Excelsior Rotterdam": { "title": 0.01, "top2": 0.03, "relegation": 4.2 }, "FC Groningen": { "title": 0.38, "top2": 1.78, "relegation": 0.1 }, "FC Twente": { "title": 6.29, "top2": 18.71, "relegation": 0.01 }, "FC Utrecht": { "title": 0.05, "top2": 0.28, "relegation": 1.67 }, "Feyenoord": { "title": 35.52, "top2": 65.29, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Fortuna Sittard": { "title": 0.05, "top2": 0.5, "relegation": 0.46 }, "Go Ahead Eagles": { "title": 0.05, "top2": 0.4, "relegation": 1.35 }, "N.E.C. Nijmegen": { "title": 0.1, "top2": 0.56, "relegation": 0.71 }, "PEC Zwolle": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.01, "relegation": 28.58 }, "PSV": { "title": 43.94, "top2": 73.38, "relegation": 0.0 }, "SC Cambuur": { "title": 0.01, "top2": 0.03, "relegation": 8.72 }, "Sparta Rotterdam": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 19.13 }, "Telstar": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.01, "relegation": 11.77 }, "Willem II": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 94.79 }, "sc Heerenveen": { "title": 0.43, "top2": 1.85, "relegation": 0.1 } }, "positions": { "ADO Den Haag": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02, 0.1, 0.2, 0.43, 1.06, 1.81, 2.76, 4.2, 6.77, 8.34, 11.71, 14.95, 19.25, 23.38, 5.01 ], "AZ": [ 1.52, 4.84, 9.9, 15.4, 17.38, 15.04, 11.78, 8.68, 5.98, 4.15, 2.47, 1.47, 0.74, 0.37, 0.19, 0.04, 0.02, 0.0 ], "Ajax": [ 11.66, 19.18, 25.3, 17.87, 11.71, 6.66, 3.55, 2.02, 1.05, 0.52, 0.27, 0.14, 0.04, 0.02, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Excelsior Rotterdam": [ 0.0, 0.02, 0.13, 0.54, 1.24, 2.6, 4.1, 5.98, 8.07, 10.36, 11.62, 12.57, 12.46, 10.76, 8.72, 6.64, 3.93, 0.26 ], "FC Groningen": [ 0.38, 1.4, 4.16, 7.99, 12.03, 13.8, 14.34, 12.34, 10.34, 7.9, 5.88, 4.1, 2.56, 1.44, 0.84, 0.38, 0.1, 0.0 ], "FC Twente": [ 6.28, 12.43, 20.23, 22.12, 16.14, 9.73, 5.76, 3.22, 2.04, 1.07, 0.55, 0.3, 0.08, 0.03, 0.02, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "FC Utrecht": [ 0.05, 0.23, 0.73, 2.06, 3.86, 6.35, 8.04, 10.08, 11.0, 11.06, 11.14, 9.98, 8.8, 6.74, 5.06, 3.16, 1.54, 0.12 ], "Feyenoord": [ 35.52, 29.77, 17.23, 9.2, 4.55, 2.2, 0.86, 0.46, 0.12, 0.06, 0.02, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Fortuna Sittard": [ 0.05, 0.44, 1.5, 3.26, 6.09, 9.21, 11.3, 12.61, 12.46, 11.52, 9.94, 7.94, 5.68, 3.81, 2.54, 1.17, 0.44, 0.02 ], "Go Ahead Eagles": [ 0.05, 0.35, 1.1, 2.46, 4.5, 6.85, 9.01, 10.5, 11.04, 11.22, 10.7, 9.69, 7.89, 6.2, 4.5, 2.59, 1.26, 0.09 ], "N.E.C. Nijmegen": [ 0.1, 0.46, 1.2, 3.5, 5.82, 8.8, 10.98, 11.8, 12.61, 11.42, 9.88, 7.9, 6.14, 4.34, 2.77, 1.6, 0.66, 0.06 ], "PEC Zwolle": [ 0.0, 0.01, 0.0, 0.02, 0.07, 0.23, 0.43, 0.84, 1.4, 2.6, 4.08, 5.9, 8.55, 11.92, 15.6, 19.78, 23.79, 4.79 ], "PSV": [ 43.94, 29.44, 14.32, 6.79, 3.09, 1.36, 0.6, 0.3, 0.11, 0.03, 0.02, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "SC Cambuur": [ 0.0, 0.02, 0.06, 0.26, 0.64, 1.27, 2.26, 3.32, 4.85, 7.18, 9.06, 11.03, 12.9, 13.48, 13.26, 11.7, 7.8, 0.92 ], "Sparta Rotterdam": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.02, 0.04, 0.2, 0.5, 0.9, 1.7, 2.68, 3.9, 5.92, 7.79, 10.8, 13.18, 15.9, 17.32, 16.61, 2.52 ], "Telstar": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.02, 0.12, 0.34, 0.78, 1.7, 3.02, 4.44, 6.36, 8.38, 10.52, 12.14, 14.0, 13.54, 12.86, 10.06, 1.71 ], "Willem II": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05, 0.06, 0.24, 0.46, 1.23, 3.16, 10.3, 84.48 ], "sc Heerenveen": [ 0.43, 1.42, 4.08, 8.34, 12.24, 14.44, 13.97, 12.08, 10.01, 7.88, 5.82, 3.84, 2.62, 1.54, 0.86, 0.35, 0.1, 0.0 ] }, "expected": { "ADO Den Haag": { "points": 31.3, "position": 14.8 }, "AZ": { "points": 57.7, "position": 5.9 }, "Ajax": { "points": 66.2, "position": 3.6 }, "Excelsior Rotterdam": { "points": 40.5, "position": 11.8 }, "FC Groningen": { "points": 52.5, "position": 7.5 }, "FC Twente": { "points": 63.5, "position": 4.3 }, "FC Utrecht": { "points": 45.2, "position": 10.2 }, "Feyenoord": { "points": 72.6, "position": 2.3 }, "Fortuna Sittard": { "points": 48.4, "position": 9.1 }, "Go Ahead Eagles": { "points": 45.8, "position": 9.9 }, "N.E.C. Nijmegen": { "points": 47.4, "position": 9.2 }, "PEC Zwolle": { "points": 31.3, "position": 14.8 }, "PSV": { "points": 73.8, "position": 2.0 }, "SC Cambuur": { "points": 37.3, "position": 12.9 }, "Sparta Rotterdam": { "points": 33.5, "position": 14.1 }, "Telstar": { "points": 36.0, "position": 13.3 }, "Willem II": { "points": 15.6, "position": 17.8 }, "sc Heerenveen": { "points": 52.6, "position": 7.5 } }, "ratings": { "ADO Den Haag": { "attack": -0.177, "defence": -0.164 }, "AZ": { "attack": 0.048, "defence": 0.225 }, "Ajax": { "attack": 0.258, "defence": 0.33 }, "Excelsior Rotterdam": { "attack": -0.143, "defence": 0.038 }, "FC Groningen": { "attack": 0.104, "defence": 0.098 }, "FC Twente": { "attack": 0.086, "defence": 0.437 }, "FC Utrecht": { "attack": -0.025, "defence": 0.053 }, "Feyenoord": { "attack": 0.357, "defence": 0.347 }, "Fortuna Sittard": { "attack": -0.076, "defence": 0.001 }, "Go Ahead Eagles": { "attack": 0.059, "defence": -0.026 }, "N.E.C. Nijmegen": { "attack": 0.157, "defence": 0.071 }, "PEC Zwolle": { "attack": -0.251, "defence": -0.163 }, "PSV": { "attack": 0.567, "defence": 0.254 }, "SC Cambuur": { "attack": -0.011, "defence": -0.222 }, "Sparta Rotterdam": { "attack": -0.175, "defence": -0.128 }, "Telstar": { "attack": -0.129, "defence": 0.01 }, "Willem II": { "attack": -0.34, "defence": -0.474 }, "sc Heerenveen": { "attack": 0.057, "defence": 0.206 } } }, "matchesThatMatter": [ { "fixtureId": "97", "date": "2026-11-01T11:15:00Z", "home": "PEC Zwolle", "away": "ADO Den Haag", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "ADO Den Haag", "swing": 24.8, "ifHome": 40.6, "ifDraw": 27.6, "ifAway": 15.8 }, { "fixtureId": "98", "date": "2026-10-31T17:45:00Z", "home": "PSV", "away": "Willem II", "tier": "top2", "tierLabel": "Top 2", "team": "PSV", "swing": 23.0, "ifHome": 74.7, "ifDraw": 56.6, "ifAway": 51.7 }, { "fixtureId": "92", "date": "2026-10-31T15:30:00Z", "home": "Feyenoord", "away": "Fortuna Sittard", "tier": "top2", "tierLabel": "Top 2", "team": "Feyenoord", "swing": 21.6, "ifHome": 70.5, "ifDraw": 57.3, "ifAway": 48.9 }, { "fixtureId": "91", "date": "2026-10-31T20:00:00Z", "home": "Ajax", "away": "AZ", "tier": "top2", "tierLabel": "Top 2", "team": "Ajax", "swing": 21.2, "ifHome": 39.5, "ifDraw": 24.5, "ifAway": 18.3 }, { "fixtureId": "94", "date": "2026-11-01T15:45:00Z", "home": "FC Groningen", "away": "Sparta Rotterdam", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Sparta Rotterdam", "swing": 14.4, "ifHome": 23.4, "ifDraw": 16.0, "ifAway": 9.0 }, { "fixtureId": "99", "date": "2026-11-01T13:30:00Z", "home": "Excelsior Rotterdam", "away": "FC Twente", "tier": "top2", "tierLabel": "Top 2", "team": "FC Twente", "swing": 13.8, "ifHome": 10.2, "ifDraw": 15.0, "ifAway": 24.0 }, { "fixtureId": "95", "date": "2026-11-01T13:30:00Z", "home": "Telstar", "away": "FC Utrecht", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Telstar", "swing": 10.4, "ifHome": 6.5, "ifDraw": 11.6, "ifAway": 16.9 }, { "fixtureId": "93", "date": "2026-10-31T20:00:00Z", "home": "SC Cambuur", "away": "Go Ahead Eagles", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "SC Cambuur", "swing": 9.1, "ifHome": 3.7, "ifDraw": 7.7, "ifAway": 12.9 }, { "fixtureId": "96", "date": "2026-10-31T17:45:00Z", "home": "sc Heerenveen", "away": "N.E.C. Nijmegen", "tier": "top2", "tierLabel": "Top 2", "team": "sc Heerenveen", "swing": 2.5, "ifHome": 3.2, "ifDraw": 1.0, "ifAway": 0.7 }, { "fixtureId": "38", "date": "2026-09-08T12:00:00Z", "home": "FC Utrecht", "away": "Go Ahead Eagles", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "FC Utrecht", "swing": 2.1, "ifHome": 0.7, "ifDraw": 1.7, "ifAway": 2.8 } ], "movement": { "since": "2026-10-25T21:58:33Z", "changes": { "ADO Den Haag": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": -0.28 }, "AZ": { "title": -1.86, "top2": -5.03, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Ajax": { "title": 1.36, "top2": 1.03, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Excelsior Rotterdam": { "title": 0.0, "top2": -0.07, "relegation": 1.01 }, "FC Groningen": { "title": -0.03, "top2": -0.43, "relegation": -0.07 }, "FC Twente": { "title": 3.14, "top2": 6.39, "relegation": 0.0 }, "FC Utrecht": { "title": 0.01, "top2": 0.04, "relegation": -0.21 }, "Feyenoord": { "title": 0.74, "top2": 0.4, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Fortuna Sittard": { "title": -0.03, "top2": 0.01, "relegation": -0.64 }, "Go Ahead Eagles": { "title": 0.0, "top2": -0.03, "relegation": 0.04 }, "N.E.C. Nijmegen": { "title": -0.02, "top2": -0.22, "relegation": 0.13 }, "PEC Zwolle": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.01, "relegation": -0.47 }, "PSV": { "title": -3.35, "top2": -1.98, "relegation": 0.0 }, "SC Cambuur": { "title": 0.01, "top2": -0.01, "relegation": -0.32 }, "Sparta Rotterdam": { "title": 0.0, "top2": -0.01, "relegation": 1.43 }, "Telstar": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": -0.67 }, "Willem II": { "title": 0.0, "top2": 0.0, "relegation": 0.07 }, "sc Heerenveen": { "title": 0.06, "top2": -0.07, "relegation": -0.04 } } } }