In season
Premier League 2026-27
Premier League 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: ARS 47%. Standings leader: Man City · 21 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- ARS 47%
- Standings leader
- Man City · 21 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +11 | 21 | 40% | 94% | – |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +8 | 21 | 47% | 96% | – |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +16 | 16 | 9% | 71% | <0.1% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 15 | 2% | 39% | 0.5% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 | 0.7% | 21% | 2% |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +5 | 11 | 0.5% | 18% | 2% |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 11 | 0.2% | 10% | 4% |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 | <0.1% | 4% | 12% |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 | 0.3% | 15% | 3% |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 | <0.1% | 2% | 17% |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 | <0.1% | 3% | 11% |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 | <0.1% | 1.0% | 31% |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 | 0.2% | 12% | 4% |
| 14 | Spurs | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 | <0.1% | 1% | 21% |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 | <0.1% | 1% | 21% |
| 16 | Man Utd | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 | 0.2% | 10% | 5% |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 | – | 0.2% | 49% |
| 18 | Nott'm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 | <0.1% | 2% | 20% |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -9 | 6 | – | 0.1% | 63% |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 | – | 0.5% | 36% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 6 past fixtures have no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
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