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"55", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-11T13:00:00Z", "home": "Crystal Palace", "away": "Nott'm Forest", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "59", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-10T16:30:00Z", "home": "Man Utd", "away": "Spurs", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "60", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-10T14:00:00Z", "home": "Sunderland", "away": "Brighton", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "57", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-10T14:00:00Z", "home": "Ipswich", "away": "Fulham", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "53", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-10T14:00:00Z", "home": "Chelsea", "away": "Bournemouth", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "52", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-10T14:00:00Z", "home": "Aston Villa", "away": "Brentford", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "51", "round": 6, "date": "2026-10-10T11:30:00Z", "home": "Arsenal", "away": "Leeds", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "45", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-20T15:30:00Z", "home": "Fulham", "away": "Man Utd", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "47", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-20T13:00:00Z", "home": "Man City", "away": "Sunderland", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "46", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-20T13:00:00Z", "home": "Leeds", "away": "Crystal Palace", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "41", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-20T13:00:00Z", "home": "Bournemouth", "away": "Liverpool", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "49", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-19T16:30:00Z", "home": "Nott'm Forest", "away": "Coventry", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "48", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-19T14:00:00Z", "home": "Newcastle", "away": "Hull", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "44", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-19T14:00:00Z", "home": "Everton", "away": "Ipswich", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "43", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-19T14:00:00Z", "home": "Brighton", "away": "Arsenal", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "50", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-19T11:30:00Z", "home": "Spurs", "away": "Aston Villa", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "42", "round": 5, "date": "2026-09-18T19:00:00Z", "home": "Brentford", "away": "Chelsea", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "36", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-14T19:00:00Z", "home": "Leeds", "away": "Newcastle", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "38", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-13T15:30:00Z", "home": "Man Utd", "away": "Man City", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "34", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-13T13:00:00Z", "home": "Coventry", "away": "Brighton", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 5 }, { "id": "39", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T19:00:00Z", "home": "Sunderland", "away": "Arsenal", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "40", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T16:30:00Z", "home": "Spurs", "away": "Everton", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "37", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T14:00:00Z", "home": "Liverpool", "away": "Fulham", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "35", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T14:00:00Z", "home": "Crystal Palace", "away": "Ipswich", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "33", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T14:00:00Z", "home": "Chelsea", "away": "Hull", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "32", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T14:00:00Z", "home": "Aston Villa", "away": "Nott'm Forest", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "31", "round": 4, "date": "2026-09-12T14:00:00Z", "home": "Bournemouth", "away": "Brentford", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "21", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-06T15:30:00Z", "home": "Arsenal", "away": "Chelsea", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "24", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-06T13:00:00Z", "home": "Everton", "away": "Man Utd", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "26", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T16:30:00Z", "home": "Hull", "away": "Aston Villa", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "30", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T14:00:00Z", "home": "Nott'm Forest", "away": "Spurs", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "28", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T14:00:00Z", "home": "Man City", "away": "Coventry", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "25", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T14:00:00Z", "home": "Fulham", "away": "Crystal Palace", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "23", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T14:00:00Z", "home": "Brighton", "away": "Leeds", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "22", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T14:00:00Z", "home": "Brentford", "away": "Sunderland", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "29", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-05T11:30:00Z", "home": "Newcastle", "away": "Bournemouth", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "27", "round": 3, "date": "2026-09-04T19:00:00Z", "home": "Ipswich", "away": "Liverpool", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "12", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-31T19:00:00Z", "home": "Aston Villa", "away": "Arsenal", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "18", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-30T15:30:00Z", "home": "Man Utd", "away": "Ipswich", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "19", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-30T13:00:00Z", "home": "Sunderland", "away": "Fulham", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "16", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-30T13:00:00Z", "home": "Leeds", "away": "Brentford", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "13", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-30T13:00:00Z", "home": "Chelsea", "away": "Brighton", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "20", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-29T16:30:00Z", "home": "Spurs", "away": "Newcastle", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "14", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-29T14:00:00Z", "home": "Coventry", "away": "Hull", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "11", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-29T14:00:00Z", "home": "Bournemouth", "away": "Everton", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "17", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-29T11:30:00Z", "home": "Liverpool", "away": "Nott'm Forest", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "15", "round": 2, "date": "2026-08-28T19:00:00Z", "home": "Crystal Palace", "away": "Man City", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "10", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-24T19:00:00Z", "home": "Fulham", "away": "Chelsea", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "9", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-23T15:30:00Z", "home": "Newcastle", "away": "Liverpool", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "8", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-23T13:00:00Z", "home": "Man City", "away": "Bournemouth", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "7", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-23T13:00:00Z", "home": "Brighton", "away": "Aston Villa", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "6", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-22T16:30:00Z", "home": "Brentford", "away": "Spurs", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "5", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-22T14:00:00Z", "home": "Nott'm Forest", "away": "Leeds", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "4", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-22T14:00:00Z", "home": "Ipswich", "away": "Sunderland", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "3", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-22T14:00:00Z", "home": "Everton", "away": "Crystal Palace", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "2", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-22T11:30:00Z", "home": "Hull", "away": "Man Utd", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "1", "round": 1, "date": "2026-08-21T19:00:00Z", "home": "Arsenal", "away": "Coventry", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 0 } ], "analysis": { "method": "Monte Carlo", "simulations": 20000, "model": "Poisson goals model", "modelNotes": [ "Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.", "Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.", "Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored.", "Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23." ], "probabilities": { "Arsenal": { "title": 46.75, "top4": 96.08, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Aston Villa": { "title": 0.3, "top4": 14.7, "relegation": 2.76 }, "Bournemouth": { "title": 0.22, "top4": 11.64, "relegation": 4.17 }, "Brentford": { "title": 0.46, "top4": 17.61, "relegation": 2.34 }, "Brighton": { "title": 8.5, "top4": 70.7, "relegation": 0.06 }, "Chelsea": { "title": 0.71, "top4": 21.05, "relegation": 2.1 }, "Coventry": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.1, "relegation": 63.4 }, "Crystal Palace": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.22, "relegation": 48.97 }, "Everton": { "title": 0.04, "top4": 3.29, "relegation": 10.85 }, "Fulham": { "title": 0.01, "top4": 1.23, "relegation": 20.62 }, "Hull": { "title": 0.01, "top4": 1.9, "relegation": 16.71 }, "Ipswich": { "title": 0.01, "top4": 0.97, "relegation": 30.56 }, "Leeds": { "title": 0.21, "top4": 10.36, "relegation": 3.56 }, "Liverpool": { "title": 2.08, "top4": 38.61, "relegation": 0.46 }, "Man City": { "title": 40.42, "top4": 93.67, "relegation": 0.0 }, "Man Utd": { "title": 0.19, "top4": 10.29, "relegation": 5.24 }, "Newcastle": { "title": 0.07, "top4": 4.0, "relegation": 11.78 }, "Nott'm Forest": { "title": 0.01, "top4": 1.69, "relegation": 19.8 }, "Spurs": { "title": 0.01, "top4": 1.41, "relegation": 20.75 }, "Sunderland": { "title": 0.0, "top4": 0.47, "relegation": 35.88 } }, "positions": { "Arsenal": [ 46.75, 31.92, 12.57, 4.84, 2.07, 1.03, 0.47, 0.18, 0.1, 0.03, 0.01, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Aston Villa": [ 0.3, 1.59, 4.87, 7.94, 9.58, 9.5, 9.56, 8.81, 8.14, 7.34, 6.74, 5.6, 5.17, 3.9, 3.45, 2.64, 2.11, 1.42, 0.94, 0.4 ], "Bournemouth": [ 0.22, 1.34, 3.77, 6.3, 7.99, 9.03, 9.06, 8.85, 8.6, 7.39, 6.82, 6.06, 5.44, 4.68, 4.0, 3.39, 2.9, 2.03, 1.34, 0.8 ], "Brentford": [ 0.46, 2.14, 6.07, 8.94, 10.44, 10.09, 9.59, 8.98, 7.7, 7.22, 6.16, 5.25, 4.28, 3.84, 2.58, 2.2, 1.73, 1.16, 0.83, 0.36 ], "Brighton": [ 8.5, 18.71, 26.79, 16.7, 9.78, 6.75, 4.14, 2.88, 1.95, 1.26, 0.95, 0.53, 0.42, 0.26, 0.14, 0.12, 0.08, 0.03, 0.02, 0.0 ], "Chelsea": [ 0.71, 3.05, 6.96, 10.34, 11.07, 10.49, 9.47, 8.27, 7.31, 6.33, 5.4, 4.61, 4.03, 3.36, 2.88, 1.96, 1.7, 1.08, 0.66, 0.36 ], "Coventry": [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.03, 0.06, 0.12, 0.3, 0.54, 0.52, 0.96, 1.21, 1.72, 2.34, 2.94, 4.21, 5.6, 6.9, 9.14, 12.96, 18.35, 32.09 ], "Crystal Palace": [ 0.0, 0.02, 0.03, 0.18, 0.4, 0.56, 1.06, 1.27, 1.84, 2.31, 3.05, 3.82, 4.78, 5.81, 7.02, 8.6, 10.29, 12.84, 16.0, 20.13 ], "Everton": [ 0.04, 0.22, 0.9, 2.13, 3.56, 4.3, 5.6, 6.74, 7.07, 7.67, 7.63, 7.86, 8.09, 7.67, 7.14, 6.88, 5.64, 4.96, 3.64, 2.25 ], "Fulham": [ 0.01, 0.04, 0.3, 0.88, 1.54, 2.42, 3.28, 3.98, 4.86, 5.34, 6.46, 7.01, 7.88, 8.5, 8.65, 9.28, 8.94, 8.44, 7.42, 4.76 ], "Hull": [ 0.01, 0.13, 0.55, 1.21, 2.1, 2.84, 3.74, 4.66, 5.65, 6.62, 7.12, 7.86, 8.1, 8.45, 8.34, 8.04, 7.85, 6.75, 6.3, 3.67 ], "Ipswich": [ 0.01, 0.06, 0.25, 0.65, 1.12, 1.76, 2.32, 3.08, 3.5, 4.45, 5.08, 5.82, 6.82, 7.14, 8.22, 9.38, 9.8, 10.55, 10.7, 9.31 ], "Leeds": [ 0.21, 0.97, 3.28, 5.9, 7.68, 9.0, 8.62, 9.11, 8.6, 8.14, 7.23, 6.64, 5.65, 4.96, 4.11, 3.5, 2.84, 1.74, 1.26, 0.56 ], "Liverpool": [ 2.08, 6.52, 13.64, 16.37, 14.08, 11.17, 8.54, 6.82, 5.4, 4.0, 3.1, 2.25, 2.01, 1.49, 0.98, 0.64, 0.45, 0.28, 0.15, 0.03 ], "Man City": [ 40.42, 31.89, 14.7, 6.67, 3.08, 1.51, 0.75, 0.4, 0.23, 0.18, 0.07, 0.05, 0.02, 0.01, 0.01, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ], "Man Utd": [ 0.19, 0.92, 3.21, 5.98, 7.43, 8.33, 8.6, 8.23, 8.12, 7.72, 7.24, 6.6, 5.42, 5.08, 4.77, 3.66, 3.26, 2.46, 1.72, 1.05 ], "Newcastle": [ 0.08, 0.28, 1.15, 2.5, 3.7, 4.69, 5.66, 6.46, 7.06, 7.14, 7.49, 7.7, 7.6, 7.63, 6.97, 6.59, 5.52, 5.28, 4.28, 2.22 ], "Nott'm Forest": [ 0.01, 0.11, 0.43, 1.14, 1.69, 2.69, 3.8, 4.36, 4.89, 5.93, 6.67, 7.41, 7.68, 7.86, 8.54, 8.5, 8.49, 7.66, 7.14, 5.0 ], "Spurs": [ 0.01, 0.08, 0.38, 0.94, 1.76, 2.41, 3.4, 4.08, 5.05, 5.9, 6.54, 7.41, 7.59, 8.02, 8.4, 8.69, 8.59, 8.33, 7.16, 5.26 ], "Sunderland": [ 0.0, 0.01, 0.13, 0.33, 0.8, 1.14, 1.8, 2.31, 2.97, 3.81, 4.53, 5.18, 6.06, 7.13, 8.22, 9.04, 10.66, 12.02, 12.1, 11.75 ] }, "expected": { "Arsenal": { "points": 81.8, "position": 1.9 }, "Aston Villa": { "points": 55.2, "position": 8.8 }, "Bournemouth": { "points": 53.5, "position": 9.4 }, "Brentford": { "points": 55.9, "position": 8.4 }, "Brighton": { "points": 69.8, "position": 4.0 }, "Chelsea": { "points": 57.2, "position": 8.1 }, "Coventry": { "points": 33.9, "position": 17.5 }, "Crystal Palace": { "points": 37.2, "position": 16.4 }, "Everton": { "points": 47.7, "position": 12.0 }, "Fulham": { "points": 43.6, "position": 13.7 }, "Hull": { "points": 45.0, "position": 13.1 }, "Ipswich": { "points": 41.6, "position": 14.7 }, "Leeds": { "points": 53.1, "position": 9.5 }, "Liverpool": { "points": 62.5, "position": 6.1 }, "Man City": { "points": 80.1, "position": 2.1 }, "Man Utd": { "points": 52.5, "position": 9.8 }, "Newcastle": { "points": 48.0, "position": 11.9 }, "Nott'm Forest": { "points": 44.1, "position": 13.5 }, "Spurs": { "points": 44.0, "position": 13.6 }, "Sunderland": { "points": 39.9, "position": 15.3 } }, "ratings": { "Arsenal": { "attack": 0.234, "defence": 0.567 }, "Aston Villa": { "attack": 0.068, "defence": -0.015 }, "Bournemouth": { "attack": 0.111, "defence": -0.031 }, "Brentford": { "attack": 0.104, "defence": 0.024 }, "Brighton": { "attack": 0.266, "defence": 0.171 }, "Chelsea": { "attack": 0.214, "defence": -0.156 }, "Coventry": { "attack": -0.287, "defence": -0.248 }, "Crystal Palace": { "attack": -0.201, "defence": -0.224 }, "Everton": { "attack": -0.147, "defence": 0.028 }, "Fulham": { "attack": -0.2, "defence": 0.032 }, "Hull": { "attack": -0.214, "defence": -0.01 }, "Ipswich": { "attack": -0.048, "defence": -0.301 }, "Leeds": { "attack": -0.083, "defence": 0.105 }, "Liverpool": { "attack": 0.143, "defence": 0.054 }, "Man City": { "attack": 0.406, "defence": 0.254 }, "Man Utd": { "attack": 0.191, "defence": -0.047 }, "Newcastle": { "attack": 0.043, "defence": -0.174 }, "Nott'm Forest": { "attack": -0.142, "defence": 0.037 }, "Spurs": { "attack": -0.159, "defence": -0.062 }, "Sunderland": { "attack": -0.252, "defence": -0.036 } } }, "matchesThatMatter": [ { "fixtureId": "90", "date": "2026-10-31T17:30:00Z", "home": "Spurs", "away": "Crystal Palace", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Crystal Palace", "swing": 24.4, "ifHome": 58.0, "ifDraw": 46.7, "ifAway": 33.6 }, { "fixtureId": "85", "date": "2026-10-31T15:00:00Z", "home": "Coventry", "away": "Sunderland", "tier": "relegation", "tierLabel": "Relegation", "team": "Coventry", "swing": 22.4, "ifHome": 51.2, "ifDraw": 65.3, "ifAway": 73.6 }, { "fixtureId": "88", "date": 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