In season
Women's Super League 2026-27
Women's Super League 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: MCI 52%. Standings leader: Chelsea · 19 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- MCI 52%
- Standings leader
- Chelsea · 19 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Champions League | Relegation | Bottom 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 19 | 44% | 96% | – | – |
| 2 | Manchester City | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 19 | 52% | 97% | – | – |
| 3 | London City Lionesses | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 16 | 1% | 28% | – | <0.1% |
| 4 | Manchester United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 | 0.2% | 14% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 10 | 0.1% | 6% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| 6 | Arsenal | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 | 2% | 55% | – | – |
| 7 | Everton | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 | – | <0.1% | 1% | 10% |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 9 | – | 0.3% | 0.9% | 6% |
| 9 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 8 | <0.1% | 3% | <0.1% | 0.6% |
| 10 | Liverpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 8 | – | 0.8% | 0.2% | 2% |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 | – | <0.1% | 3% | 16% |
| 12 | West Ham United | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 6 | – | <0.1% | 6% | 29% |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 | – | – | 12% | 45% |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 0 | – | – | 77% | 91% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 1 past fixture has no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- Teams level on points are ranked by goal difference, then goals scored, then wins, then head-to-head points, then head-to-head goal difference; simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
- Backtested on the WSL's 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons (263 matches): week-ahead predictions score 0.175 (ranked probability score) against 0.242 for home/draw/away base rates.
Interactive team analysis loads when JavaScript is available. View this data snapshot.