In season
Süper Lig 2026-27
Süper Lig 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: GS 57%. Standings leader: Galatasaray · 25 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- GS 57%
- Standings leader
- Galatasaray · 25 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Top 2 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 25 | 57% | 80% | – |
| 2 | Amedspor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +10 | 20 | 4% | 12% | <0.1% |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +14 | 19 | 17% | 44% | <0.1% |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | +8 | 18 | 6% | 20% | <0.1% |
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +15 | 16 | 16% | 41% | – |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +4 | 16 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2% |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 15 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2% |
| 8 | Erzurumspor | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 | – | <0.1% | 11% |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 13 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 4% |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 12 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 3% |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 6% |
| 12 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 | 0.4% | 2% | 0.9% |
| 13 | Çaykur Rizespor | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 16% |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 | – | <0.1% | 48% |
| 15 | Konyaspor | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 | – | <0.1% | 27% |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 | – | <0.1% | 35% |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 | – | – | 52% |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 | – | – | 94% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 3 past fixtures have no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- Teams level on points are ranked by head-to-head points, goal difference and goals (once they have met home and away), then overall goal difference, then overall goals scored; simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
- Backtested on the Süper Lig's 2023-24 to 2025-26 seasons (1,024 matches): week-ahead predictions score 0.197 (ranked probability score) against 0.226 for home/draw/away base rates.
Interactive team analysis loads when JavaScript is available. View this data snapshot.