In season
Scottish Premiership 2026-27
Scottish Premiership 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: CEL 80%. Standings leader: Celtic · 28 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- CEL 80%
- Standings leader
- Celtic · 28 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Top 3 | Top 6 | Play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 28 | 80% | 99.2% | >99.9% | – | – |
| 2 | Rangers | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 | 16% | 89% | 99.7% | <0.1% | – |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 20 | 3% | 55% | 95% | 0.1% | – |
| 4 | Dundee | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 17 | 0.8% | 26% | 83% | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| 5 | Dundee United | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 0.3% | 13% | 70% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 6 | Falkirk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 | 0.1% | 12% | 69% | 1% | 0.2% |
| 7 | St Mirren | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 | – | 0.7% | 16% | 14% | 7% |
| 8 | St Johnstone | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 | <0.1% | 2% | 26% | 9% | 4% |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 | <0.1% | 2% | 26% | 8% | 3% |
| 10 | Motherwell | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 9 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 7% | 21% | 14% |
| 11 | Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 6% | 24% | 16% |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 | – | <0.1% | 1% | 21% | 56% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 3 past fixtures have no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this season with a 240-day half-life.
- FixtureDownload has no Scottish Premiership season before 2026-27, so every team, promoted or relegated, started this season from the same average rating, and ratings are held closer to it than usual (backtests without a previous season scored better that way).
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- Teams level on points are ranked by goal difference, then goals scored, then head-to-head points, then head-to-head goal difference; simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, then goals scored.
- After 33 games the league splits into sections of 6: each team plays the others in its section once more and cannot leave it, so a bottom-section team finishes below every top-section team whatever its points. Until then, every simulated season splits its own table and plays the post-split games itself; the home side is the team that had fewer home games against that opponent before the split, as the league arranges it where it can.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
- European places from the 2026-27 table: the champions enter the Champions League second qualifying round, and second and third the Conference League second qualifying round (UEFA's 2026 association ranking puts Scotland 18th). The Scottish Cup winners take a Europa League place, so if they finish in the top three, fourth qualifies too.
- 11th plays the winner of the Championship play-offs over two legs for a place in the Premiership; 12th is relegated.
- Checked on four earlier Scottish seasons from ESPN's results (2021-22, 2022-23, 2024-25 and 2025-26): week-ahead predictions from the season so far score 0.204 (ranked probability score) against 0.231 for base rates, and season odds from round 7 to the split score 0.055 (Brier score) against 0.092 for the table at the time.
Interactive team analysis loads when JavaScript is available. View this data snapshot.