In season
NBL 2026-27
NBL 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Finals favourite: SYD 94%. Standings leader: Sydney Kings · 7 wins. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Finals favourite
- SYD 94%
- Standings leader
- Sydney Kings · 7 wins
| Rank | Team | Group | W | L | PCT | % | GB | DIFF | L10 | STRK | Finals | Top 2 | Minor premiership | Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Kings | overall | 7 | 3 | 0.700 | 111.12 | 0 | +9.8 | 7-3 | W2 | 94% | 61% | 41% | 30% |
| 2 | Tasmania JackJumpers | overall | 6 | 3 | 0.667 | 104.76 | 0.5 | +4.3 | 6-3 | L1 | 82% | 34% | 17% | 14% |
| 3 | Perth Wildcats | overall | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 96.86 | 1 | -3 | 5-3 | L1 | 70% | 22% | 10% | 8% |
| 4 | Cairns Taipans | overall | 6 | 4 | 0.600 | 96.63 | 1 | -3.2 | 6-4 | W2 | 57% | 12% | 5% | 5% |
| 5 | Adelaide 36ers | overall | 5 | 5 | 0.500 | 97.54 | 2 | -2.3 | 5-5 | W1 | 64% | 15% | 6% | 7% |
| 6 | South East Melbourne Phoenix | overall | 4 | 5 | 0.444 | 104.14 | 2.5 | +3.9 | 4-5 | W2 | 69% | 20% | 9% | 14% |
| 7 | Melbourne United | overall | 4 | 5 | 0.444 | 103.14 | 2.5 | +2.9 | 4-5 | W1 | 71% | 21% | 9% | 12% |
| 8 | Brisbane Bullets | overall | 4 | 5 | 0.444 | 95.9 | 2.5 | -4 | 4-5 | L1 | 29% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| 9 | New Zealand Breakers | overall | 4 | 6 | 0.400 | 101.77 | 3 | +1.6 | 4-6 | L3 | 54% | 10% | 4% | 8% |
| 10 | Illawarra Hawks | overall | 2 | 8 | 0.200 | 90.58 | 5 | -9.9 | 2-8 | L2 | 10% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Margin ratings model.
Source notice: 2 past games have no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at the source); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Team ratings come from score margins (capped at 40) with home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 60-day half-life; last season counts 1x as much on top.
- The rest of the regular season is simulated 20,000 times, letting team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), then the playoffs are simulated from each simulated table for title odds.
- The table breaks ties on win percentage with the league's rules: points percentage (points scored over points conceded). Simulated seasons break ties at random.
- Ignite Cup games count on the ladder; the Ignite Cup Finals do not and are left out.
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