In season
Major League Soccer 2026
Major League Soccer 2026: in season standings and model probabilities. Playoffs favourite: NSH >99.9%. Standings leader: Nashville SC · 71 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Playoffs favourite
- NSH >99.9%
- Standings leader
- Nashville SC · 71 points
| Rank | Team | Group | P | W | L | T | GF | GD | Pts | Playoffs | Top 7 | Supporters' Shield | MLS Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | East | 32 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 66 | +43 | 71 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 32% |
| 2 | New England Revolution | East | 32 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 54 | +10 | 58 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 4% |
| 3 | Vancouver Whitecaps | West | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 67 | +34 | 58 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 22% |
| 4 | Inter Miami | East | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 75 | +20 | 56 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 8% |
| 5 | FC Dallas | West | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 59 | +9 | 55 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 5% |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | East | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 63 | +15 | 53 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 5% |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | East | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 57 | +9 | 52 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 3% |
| 8 | St. Louis City SC | West | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 58 | +10 | 51 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 3% |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | West | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 42 | +3 | 51 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 3% |
| 10 | San Jose Earthquakes | West | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 54 | +7 | 49 | >99.9% | >99.9% | – | 2% |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union | East | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 62 | +11 | 47 | >99.9% | 99% | – | 4% |
| 12 | LAFC | West | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 50 | +15 | 47 | >99.9% | 99% | – | 6% |
| 13 | FC Cincinnati | East | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 67 | -6 | 46 | >99.9% | 60% | – | 0.6% |
| 14 | Columbus Crew | East | 33 | 13 | 15 | 5 | 55 | +6 | 44 | 98% | 24% | – | 0.9% |
| 15 | Colorado Rapids | West | 32 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 44 | +1 | 43 | 82% | 35% | – | 0.5% |
| 16 | Orlando City | East | 33 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 62 | -16 | 43 | 89% | 16% | – | 0.2% |
| 17 | Seattle Sounders | West | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 41 | +1 | 43 | 71% | 20% | – | 0.8% |
| 18 | Real Salt Lake | West | 32 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 50 | +1 | 42 | 74% | 31% | – | 0.6% |
| 19 | LA Galaxy | West | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45 | -9 | 41 | 37% | 10% | – | <0.1% |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | West | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 57 | -3 | 40 | 32% | 5% | – | 0.1% |
| 21 | Red Bull New York | East | 32 | 11 | 15 | 6 | 43 | -16 | 39 | 8% | – | – | <0.1% |
| 22 | New York City FC | East | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 48 | +3 | 39 | – | – | – | – |
| 23 | Toronto FC | East | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 50 | -10 | 39 | 5% | – | – | <0.1% |
| 24 | San Diego FC | West | 33 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 57 | -5 | 38 | – | – | – | – |
| 25 | Minnesota United | West | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 50 | -6 | 38 | 3% | <0.1% | – | <0.1% |
| 26 | Austin FC | West | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 41 | -18 | 34 | – | – | – | – |
| 27 | D.C. United | East | 33 | 7 | 14 | 12 | 39 | -21 | 33 | – | – | – | – |
| 28 | Atlanta United | East | 32 | 8 | 18 | 6 | 40 | -16 | 30 | – | – | – | – |
| 29 | CF Montréal | East | 33 | 6 | 19 | 8 | 37 | -30 | 26 | – | – | – | – |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | West | 33 | 6 | 22 | 5 | 39 | -42 | 23 | – | – | – | – |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), and the playoffs are then played out from each simulated table with the same strengths; penalties are a coin flip.
- Teams level on points are ranked by wins, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head points and goal difference, away goal difference, away goals, home goal difference, home goals, with the official order used where it is published. Simulated seasons separate them by wins, goal difference, goals scored, then at random.
- Playoffs: the top nine in each conference qualify. Seeds 8 and 9 meet in a Wild Card match and 1-7 go straight to a best-of-three Round One; Wild Card and Round One games that are level after 90 minutes go straight to penalties. The rest are single matches with extra time, hosted by the higher seed, and MLS Cup by the finalist with the better regular-season record.
- MLS's fifth tiebreaker, fewest disciplinary points, is not in the data; ESPN's published order (which matches mlssoccer.com) is used whenever its records agree with the results.
- Backtested on the 2024 and 2025 seasons: week-ahead match predictions score 0.224 (ranked probability score) against 0.232 for home/draw/away base rates, and playoff odds at a quarter, half and three quarters of each season were scored to set the strength drift.
- 3 FixtureDownload scores differ from ESPN's, which agree with the official standings, so ESPN's are used: LA Galaxy 1-3 St. Louis City SC on 22 Jul (not 3-1); LAFC 3-1 Real Salt Lake on 22 Jul (not 1-3); Orlando City 1-2 Chicago Fire on 19 Aug (not 1-0).
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