In season
Ligue 1 2026-27
Ligue 1 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: PSG 73%. Standings leader: Paris Saint-Germain · 20 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- PSG 73%
- Standings leader
- Paris Saint-Germain · 20 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 20 | 73% | 97% | – |
| 2 | LOSC Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +6 | 18 | 5% | 52% | <0.1% |
| 3 | Stade Rennais FC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 16 | 2% | 28% | 0.6% |
| 4 | AS Monaco | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +4 | 15 | 5% | 46% | 0.3% |
| 5 | Olympique Lyonnais | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 | 5% | 47% | 0.1% |
| 6 | Paris FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 | 2% | 24% | 0.7% |
| 7 | OGC Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 | <0.1% | 2% | 9% |
| 8 | RC Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 13 | 5% | 47% | 0.1% |
| 9 | Olympique de Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +5 | 12 | 2% | 30% | 0.6% |
| 10 | FC Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 12 | 0.3% | 8% | 3% |
| 11 | Toulouse FC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 | 0.3% | 7% | 5% |
| 12 | AJ Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 | <0.1% | 1% | 18% |
| 13 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 9 | <0.1% | 2% | 13% |
| 14 | Angers SCO | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 | – | <0.1% | 56% |
| 15 | Le Mans FC | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 | – | 0.3% | 38% |
| 16 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 | 0.2% | 6% | 7% |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 | – | <0.1% | 79% |
| 18 | Havre Athletic Club | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 | – | <0.1% | 71% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
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