In season
La Liga 2026-27
La Liga 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: BAR 75%. Standings leader: FC Barcelona · 27 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- BAR 75%
- Standings leader
- FC Barcelona · 27 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +29 | 27 | 75% | 99.8% | – |
| 2 | Atlético de Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +12 | 25 | 4% | 86% | – |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | +15 | 24 | 20% | 98% | – |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 20 | 0.4% | 51% | <0.1% |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 19 | <0.1% | 22% | 0.5% |
| 6 | Sevilla FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17 | <0.1% | 10% | 2% |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 12 | – | 2% | 9% |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 12 | <0.1% | 5% | 4% |
| 9 | Celta | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +3 | 12 | – | 4% | 3% |
| 10 | Villarreal CF | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 | <0.1% | 13% | 0.8% |
| 11 | RC Deportivo | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | – | 0.6% | 16% |
| 12 | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 11 | – | 0.7% | 12% |
| 13 | CA Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 | – | 0.3% | 25% |
| 14 | R. Racing Club | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 | – | 0.1% | 50% |
| 15 | Levante UD | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 | – | 2% | 10% |
| 16 | Elche CF | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 | – | 3% | 6% |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 | – | 1% | 13% |
| 18 | Getafe CF | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 9 | – | 0.1% | 36% |
| 19 | Valencia CF | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 | – | 0.1% | 35% |
| 20 | Málaga CF | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 5 | – | <0.1% | 78% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 2 past fixtures have no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- The table ranks teams level on points by their head-to-head points and goal difference, then overall goal difference; simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
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