In season
Formula 1 World Championship 2026
Formula 1 World Championship 2026: in season standings and probabilities for every final championship position. Drivers' title favourite: ANT >99.9%. Standings leader: Andrea Kimi Antonelli · 365 points. Races and sprints remaining: 5. Updated 2026-10-30.
- Drivers' title favourite
- ANT >99.9%
- Standings leader
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli · 365 points
- Races and sprints remaining
- 5
| Rank | Driver | Points | Wins | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | P7 | P8 | P9 | P10 | P11 | P12 | P13 | P14 | P15 | P16 | P17 | P18 | P19 | P20 | P21 | P22 | P23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 365 | 9 | >99.9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2 | George Russell | 242 | 3 | – | 12% | 19% | 24% | 32% | 12% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | 241 | 1 | – | 24% | 30% | 25% | 16% | 5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 4 | Max Verstappen | 236 | 2 | – | 45% | 24% | 17% | 11% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | 233 | 1 | – | 17% | 23% | 26% | 24% | 9% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 6 | Lando Norris | 211 | 2 | – | 1% | 4% | 7% | 17% | 71% | <0.1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 7 | Oscar Piastri | 144 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | 94% | 6% | <0.1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 8 | Isack Hadjar | 105 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6% | 90% | 4% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 9 | Liam Lawson | 77 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | 4% | 95% | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 10 | Pierre Gasly | 42 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1% | 53% | 38% | 8% | 0.7% | <0.1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 11 | Arvid Lindblad | 38 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | 36% | 44% | 16% | 3% | 0.2% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 12 | Franco Colapinto | 27 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | 4% | 9% | 40% | 32% | 13% | 2% | 0.1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 13 | Oliver Bearman | 23 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | 2% | 3% | 15% | 36% | 32% | 10% | 1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | – | – | – | – | – |
| 14 | Nico Hülkenberg | 13 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | 3% | 5% | 14% | 16% | 29% | 22% | 9% | 2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | – | – | – | – |
| 15 | Gabriel Bortoleto | 10 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | 0.7% | 4% | 6% | 11% | 32% | 30% | 13% | 3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | – | – | – |
| 16 | Esteban Ocon | 7 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.1% | 0.3% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 14% | 28% | 28% | 13% | 3% | 0.2% | <0.1% | – | – |
| 17 | Fernando Alonso | 7 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 34% | 34% | 12% | 1.0% | <0.1% | – | – |
| 18 | Carlos Sainz | 7 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 13% | 42% | 17% | 2% | <0.1% | – | – |
| 19 | Alexander Albon | 5 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 64% | 12% | 0.6% | <0.1% | – |
| 20 | Yuki Tsunoda | 1 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 69% | 27% | 3% | <0.1% |
| 21 | Lance Stroll | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 60% | 21% | 2% |
| 22 | Valtteri Bottas | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2% | 3% | 59% | 35% |
| 23 | Sergio Pérez | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | – | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1% | 1% | 0.7% | 1% | 6% | 8% | 17% | 64% |
| Rank | Team | Points | Wins | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | P6 | P7 | P8 | P9 | P10 | P11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercedes | 607 | 12 | 99.9% | <0.1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2 | Ferrari | 474 | 2 | <0.1% | 99.9% | <0.1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | Red Bull Racing | 355 | 2 | – | <0.1% | 70% | 30% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 4 | McLaren | 355 | 2 | – | <0.1% | 30% | 70% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | Racing Bulls | 102 | 0 | – | – | – | – | 97% | 3% | – | – | – | – | – |
| 6 | Alpine | 69 | 0 | – | – | – | – | 3% | 94% | 3% | <0.1% | – | – | – |
| 7 | Haas F1 Team | 30 | 0 | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | 0.8% | 47% | 49% | 3% | <0.1% | – |
| 8 | Audi | 23 | 0 | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | 2% | 48% | 45% | 5% | 0.2% | – |
| 9 | Williams | 12 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2% | 5% | 75% | 18% | 0.4% |
| 10 | Aston Martin | 7 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.4% | 1% | 15% | 79% | 4% |
| 11 | Cadillac | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2% | 3% | 95% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: Jolpica F1 API. Method: Plackett-Luce pace model.
Model notes
- Pace comes from a rank-ordered logit (Plackett-Luce) model of finishing orders: each driver's strength is their own skill plus their car's, rated per team and season, fitted on this season's and last season's races and sprints, with results losing half their weight every 120 days.
- 2026 brings new chassis and power-unit rules, so last season's car ratings carry over at only 15% (against 40% when the rules are stable), and the cars are rated mainly on this season's races. Drivers keep their skill from one season to the next, less the time decay.
- A car that does not see the flag is left out of that event's order and counts as a retirement instead. Each driver's retirement chance blends their own, their team's and the field's rates (field: 18% of race starts, sprints 9%).
- The remaining 5 races are simulated 20,000 times. Car and driver ratings drift as the season goes on (development and form), more for the races furthest away.
- Points: 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 in a Grand Prix and 8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 in a sprint; no fastest-lap point since 2025. Ties are split by race places: most wins, then most second places, and so on (sprints do not count). Simulated ties use every race finishing position; identical records are split randomly. Qualifying results used for further official tie decisions are not modelled.
- Historical evaluation before the full-field position output and expanded countback: Backtested on 2022-2025 (92 Grands Prix, each predicted from the results before it): race-winner log loss 1.49 against 1.89 for chances in proportion to championship points and 2.99 for equal chances. Drivers' title, top-three and constructors' title odds at 25%, 50% and 75% of each season scored a Brier score of 0.020 against 0.026 for the table at the time and 0.085 for base rates; the top-three odds alone (0.026) did slightly worse than the table at the time (0.024).
- Individual championship-position probabilities have not been independently backtested or calibrated.
- The tables are computed from the race and sprint results and match Jolpica F1 API's published standings (drivers and constructors) after round 18.
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