In season
EFL Championship 2026-27
EFL Championship 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: SOU 38%. Standings leader: Middlesbrough · 25 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- SOU 38%
- Standings leader
- Middlesbrough · 25 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Promotion | Top 6 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 | 27% | 49% | 87% | <0.1% |
| 2 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +12 | 24 | 38% | 61% | 92% | – |
| 3 | Swansea City | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 23 | 3% | 8% | 44% | 0.3% |
| 4 | West Ham United | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +17 | 22 | 18% | 38% | 79% | <0.1% |
| 5 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 21 | 2% | 5% | 30% | 1% |
| 6 | West Bromwich Albion | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 21 | 0.8% | 3% | 23% | 1% |
| 7 | Birmingham City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 | 4% | 12% | 52% | 0.1% |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | +8 | 20 | 2% | 6% | 34% | 1% |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 20 | 0.7% | 2% | 21% | 2% |
| 10 | Sheffield United | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 19 | 0.9% | 3% | 24% | 2% |
| 11 | Blackburn Rovers | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 | 0.4% | 2% | 15% | 3% |
| 12 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 18 | 0.4% | 1% | 14% | 4% |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 | 1% | 5% | 32% | 1% |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 7% | 8% |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 3% | 20% |
| 16 | Cardiff City | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | +2 | 14 | 0.3% | 1% | 11% | 7% |
| 17 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 10% | 7% |
| 18 | Bolton Wanderers | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 3% | 17% |
| 19 | Charlton Athletic | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1% | 28% |
| 20 | Norwich City | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 | 0.5% | 2% | 17% | 4% |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 | – | – | 0.4% | 45% |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 51% |
| 23 | Derby County | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2% | 26% |
| 24 | Preston North End | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 | – | – | <0.1% | 73% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 11 past fixtures have no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
Interactive team analysis loads when JavaScript is available. View this data snapshot.