In season
Bundesliga 2026-27
Bundesliga 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Title favourite: FCB 88%. Standings leader: FC Bayern München · 17 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Title favourite
- FCB 88%
- Standings leader
- FC Bayern München · 17 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +19 | 17 | 88% | 99.8% | – |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 17 | 9% | 88% | – |
| 3 | Sport-Club Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +7 | 13 | 0.2% | 28% | 1% |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 13 | 1% | 55% | 0.3% |
| 5 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 | <0.1% | 10% | 6% |
| 6 | RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +9 | 12 | 2% | 59% | 0.2% |
| 7 | SV Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 12 | <0.1% | 6% | 10% |
| 8 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 | – | 3% | 16% |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +4 | 9 | <0.1% | 8% | 9% |
| 10 | TSG Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 | <0.1% | 15% | 4% |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 | – | 0.9% | 30% |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.8% | 36% |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 | – | 0.8% | 31% |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 | <0.1% | 3% | 20% |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 | 0.1% | 22% | 3% |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 | – | 0.7% | 34% |
| 17 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 | – | 0.5% | 46% |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 3 | – | 0.2% | 52% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 5 past fixtures have no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), because form, injuries and transfers change teams; without it, early-season odds were overconfident in backtests.
- Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored.
- Backtested on 2025-26 in five leagues: match predictions score 0.20-0.21 (ranked probability score) against 0.22-0.23 for home/draw/away base rates; season odds were calibrated on 18 league-seasons since 2022-23.
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