In season
A-League Men 2026-27
A-League Men 2026-27: in season standings and model probabilities. Finals favourite: WEL 68%. Standings leader: Wellington Phoenix · 9 points. Updated 2026-10-31.
- Finals favourite
- WEL 68%
- Standings leader
- Wellington Phoenix · 9 points
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GD | Pts | Finals | Top 2 | Premiership | Championship |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | +6 | 9 | 68% | 28% | 15% | 10% |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +3 | 4 | 40% | 10% | 5% | 5% |
| 3 | Macarthur FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 48% | 15% | 7% | 6% |
| 4 | Brisbane Roar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 33% | 8% | 3% | 3% |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 59% | 17% | 8% | 10% |
| 6 | Auckland FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 4 | 64% | 26% | 13% | 13% |
| 7 | Melbourne City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 52% | 15% | 7% | 8% |
| 8 | Newcastle Jets | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 2 | 56% | 19% | 10% | 11% |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 63% | 24% | 13% | 14% |
| 10 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 29% | 6% | 2% | 3% |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 63% | 27% | 15% | 14% |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 26% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
Source and method
Snapshot updated . Source: FixtureDownload. Method: Poisson goals model.
Source notice: 1 past fixture has no result yet (postponed, or not yet updated at FixtureDownload); they are simulated as still to play.
Model notes
- Each remaining match is simulated 20,000 times from a Poisson goals model: team attack and defence ratings plus home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 240-day half-life.
- Every simulated season also lets team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), and the playoffs are then played out from each simulated table with the same strengths; penalties are a coin flip.
- Teams level on points are ranked by goal difference, goals scored, wins, head-to-head points and goal difference, away goal difference, away goals per away game, home goal difference, home goals per home game, with the official order used where it is published. Simulated seasons separate them by goal difference, goals scored, wins, then at random.
- Finals: the top six qualify. 3rd hosts 6th and 4th hosts 5th in Elimination Finals; 1st and 2nd then play the lower- and higher-ranked winners over two legs, with the second leg at 1st's and 2nd's grounds, and the higher-placed finalist hosts the Grand Final. Every level finals match or tie goes to extra time, then penalties.
- The Fair Play tiebreaker (cards) is not in the data; ESPN's published order, which matches aleagues.com.au, is used whenever its records agree with the results.
- These are the 2025-26 competition rules; the A-Leagues have not yet published 2026-27's.
- Backtested on 2024-25 and 2025-26: week-ahead match predictions score 0.232 (ranked probability score) against 0.235 for home/draw/away base rates (0.223 v 0.236 in 2024-25, 0.242 v 0.234 in 2025-26). Finals, top-two, premiership and title odds at a quarter, half and three quarters of each season scored better with more strength drift than Europe's 0.2 (mean Brier 0.0848 at 0.3 against 0.0865), so the A-League uses 0.3.
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