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"home": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "away": "Utah Mammoth", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "2026020026", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "home": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "away": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "homeScore": 6, "awayScore": 5, "note": "OT" }, { "id": "2026020025", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "home": "Philadelphia Flyers", "away": "Carolina Hurricanes", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3, "note": "OT" }, { "id": "2026020024", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "home": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away": "Washington Capitals", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "2026020023", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "home": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away": "Ottawa Senators", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "2026020022", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-03T23:00:00Z", "home": "Buffalo Sabres", "away": "Chicago Blackhawks", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "2026020021", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-03T02:00:00Z", "home": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away": "Anaheim Ducks", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "2026020020", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-03T01:00:00Z", "home": "Dallas Stars", "away": "St. Louis Blues", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "2026020019", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-03T00:00:00Z", "home": "Winnipeg Jets", "away": "Boston Bruins", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 4, "note": "OT" }, { "id": "2026020018", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-02T23:00:00Z", "home": "Carolina Hurricanes", "away": "Washington Capitals", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 5 }, { "id": "2026020017", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-02T22:30:00Z", "home": "Detroit Red Wings", "away": "New York Rangers", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "2026020016", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-02T02:00:00Z", "home": "San Jose Sharks", "away": "Florida Panthers", "homeScore": 4, "awayScore": 3, "note": "OT" }, { "id": "2026020015", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-02T02:00:00Z", "home": "Vancouver Canucks", "away": "Edmonton Oilers", "homeScore": 7, "awayScore": 9 }, { "id": "2026020013", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-02T01:30:00Z", "home": "Utah Mammoth", "away": "Chicago Blackhawks", "homeScore": 6, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "2026020014", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-02T01:00:00Z", "home": "Calgary Flames", "away": "Seattle Kraken", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 6 }, { "id": "2026020012", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-02T00:00:00Z", "home": "Nashville Predators", "away": "Minnesota Wild", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "2026020011", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-01T23:00:00Z", "home": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "away": "Buffalo Sabres", "homeScore": 6, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "2026020010", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-01T23:00:00Z", "home": "New York Rangers", "away": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "2026020009", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-01T23:00:00Z", "home": "New Jersey Devils", "away": "Philadelphia Flyers", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 2, "note": "OT" }, { "id": "2026020007", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-01T02:00:00Z", "home": "Colorado Avalanche", "away": "Los Angeles Kings", "homeScore": 8, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "2026020008", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-30T23:30:00Z", "home": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away": "New York Islanders", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "2026020006", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-30T23:30:00Z", "home": "Philadelphia Flyers", "away": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 7 }, { "id": "2026020005", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-30T02:30:00Z", "home": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away": "Chicago Blackhawks", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "2026020004", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-30T02:00:00Z", "home": "Edmonton Oilers", "away": "Vancouver Canucks", "homeScore": 5, "awayScore": 6, "note": "OT" }, { "id": "2026020003", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z", "home": "Boston Bruins", "away": "New York Rangers", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "2026020002", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-29T23:00:00Z", "home": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 3 }, { "id": "2026020001", "round": null, "date": "2026-09-29T21:00:00Z", "home": "Carolina Hurricanes", "away": "Florida Panthers", "homeScore": 0, "awayScore": 1, "note": "OT" } ], "analysis": { "method": "Monte Carlo", "simulations": 20000, "model": "Margin ratings model", "modelNotes": [ "Team ratings come from score margins (capped at 3) with home advantage, fitted on this and last season with a 480-day half-life; last season counts 0.6x as much on top.", "The rest of the regular season is simulated 20,000 times, letting team strength drift (more when more of the season is left), then the playoffs are simulated from each simulated table for title odds.", "Tiebreakers are simplified: points, then regulation wins, then wins; head-to-head and common-games rules are not modelled." ], "probabilities": { "Anaheim Ducks": { "playoffs": 32.05, "division": 3.4, "presidents": 0.18, "title": 0.98 }, "Boston Bruins": { "playoffs": 76.88, "division": 23.32, "presidents": 7.09, "title": 5.79 }, "Buffalo Sabres": { "playoffs": 53.76, "division": 8.88, "presidents": 1.81, "title": 3.04 }, "Calgary Flames": { "playoffs": 27.02, "division": 2.75, "presidents": 0.08, "title": 0.52 }, "Carolina Hurricanes": { "playoffs": 92.85, "division": 58.08, "presidents": 21.88, "title": 11.25 }, "Chicago Blackhawks": { "playoffs": 5.81, "division": 0.08, "presidents": 0.01, "title": 0.13 }, "Colorado Avalanche": { "playoffs": 90.77, "division": 34.56, "presidents": 11.19, "title": 13.11 }, "Columbus Blue Jackets": { "playoffs": 30.25, "division": 3.21, "presidents": 0.4, "title": 1.27 }, "Dallas Stars": { "playoffs": 75.19, "division": 14.17, "presidents": 3.74, "title": 5.03 }, "Detroit Red Wings": { "playoffs": 26.59, "division": 2.33, "presidents": 0.36, "title": 0.99 }, "Edmonton Oilers": { "playoffs": 91.36, "division": 52.58, "presidents": 10.05, "title": 6.77 }, "Florida Panthers": { "playoffs": 41.52, "division": 5.51, "presidents": 1.06, "title": 1.38 }, "Los Angeles Kings": { "playoffs": 32.4, "division": 3.74, "presidents": 0.12, "title": 0.89 }, "Minnesota Wild": { "playoffs": 88.0, "division": 27.43, "presidents": 8.61, "title": 6.62 }, "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens": { "playoffs": 71.56, "division": 19.55, "presidents": 5.42, "title": 4.75 }, "Nashville Predators": { "playoffs": 40.92, "division": 2.97, "presidents": 0.41, "title": 1.12 }, "New Jersey Devils": { "playoffs": 53.03, "division": 8.48, "presidents": 1.59, "title": 2.12 }, "New York Islanders": { "playoffs": 34.66, "division": 3.88, "presidents": 0.52, "title": 1.17 }, "New York Rangers": { "playoffs": 36.19, "division": 4.32, "presidents": 0.58, "title": 1.34 }, "Ottawa Senators": { "playoffs": 58.89, "division": 11.18, "presidents": 2.58, "title": 3.61 }, "Philadelphia Flyers": { "playoffs": 14.08, "division": 0.78, "presidents": 0.06, "title": 0.62 }, "Pittsburgh Penguins": { "playoffs": 38.8, "division": 4.48, "presidents": 0.64, "title": 2.11 }, "San Jose Sharks": { "playoffs": 37.03, "division": 4.54, "presidents": 0.27, "title": 0.77 }, "Seattle Kraken": { "playoffs": 52.26, "division": 8.34, "presidents": 0.53, "title": 1.29 }, "St. Louis Blues": { "playoffs": 49.28, "division": 4.36, "presidents": 0.73, "title": 1.62 }, "Tampa Bay Lightning": { "playoffs": 79.73, "division": 27.57, "presidents": 8.82, "title": 7.25 }, "Toronto Maple Leafs": { "playoffs": 21.68, "division": 1.67, "presidents": 0.29, "title": 0.57 }, "Utah Mammoth": { "playoffs": 78.22, "division": 15.57, "presidents": 3.9, "title": 4.3 }, "Vancouver Canucks": { "playoffs": 2.15, "division": 0.06, "presidents": 0.0, "title": 0.03 }, "Vegas Golden Knights": { "playoffs": 77.11, "division": 24.58, "presidents": 2.9, "title": 4.44 }, "Washington Capitals": { "playoffs": 69.53, "division": 16.76, "presidents": 4.06, "title": 4.52 }, "Winnipeg Jets": { "playoffs": 20.43, "division": 0.84, "presidents": 0.1, "title": 0.6 } }, "positions": { "Anaheim Ducks": [ 0.64, 2.76, 1.82, 2.77, 6.15, 10.13, 3.02, 4.75, 6.81, 8.98, 9.6, 10.36, 10.22, 9.65, 8.02, 4.3 ], "Boston Bruins": [ 12.45, 10.86, 12.76, 11.26, 7.78, 5.56, 8.95, 7.25, 5.92, 4.34, 3.68, 3.07, 2.38, 1.74, 1.27, 0.72 ], "Buffalo Sabres": [ 3.91, 4.96, 6.93, 7.95, 6.18, 4.81, 9.55, 9.46, 8.54, 7.35, 6.47, 5.95, 5.78, 4.95, 4.14, 3.06 ], "Calgary Flames": [ 0.46, 2.29, 1.27, 2.0, 5.36, 8.72, 2.66, 4.24, 6.61, 8.62, 9.85, 10.88, 11.38, 10.92, 9.26, 5.47 ], "Carolina Hurricanes": [ 33.43, 24.64, 9.49, 7.04, 8.38, 5.55, 2.38, 1.92, 1.62, 1.72, 1.18, 1.06, 0.7, 0.51, 0.23, 0.12 ], "Chicago Blackhawks": [ 0.05, 0.03, 0.26, 0.43, 0.45, 0.35, 1.54, 2.7, 4.03, 4.9, 6.21, 8.24, 11.16, 15.67, 22.96, 21.04 ], "Colorado Avalanche": [ 24.26, 10.3, 18.42, 13.19, 6.04, 3.09, 9.9, 5.56, 3.44, 2.31, 1.3, 1.04, 0.6, 0.41, 0.11, 0.03 ], "Columbus Blue Jackets": [ 1.08, 2.14, 2.64, 3.44, 4.9, 7.3, 3.87, 4.9, 5.92, 7.22, 8.12, 8.26, 9.05, 9.8, 10.13, 11.24 ], "Dallas Stars": [ 9.31, 4.86, 13.14, 12.81, 6.32, 3.88, 13.92, 10.95, 7.78, 5.0, 4.04, 3.24, 2.2, 1.52, 0.79, 0.24 ], "Detroit Red Wings": [ 0.83, 1.5, 2.22, 3.12, 2.88, 2.62, 6.18, 7.24, 7.11, 7.46, 8.0, 8.75, 9.63, 10.46, 10.8, 11.19 ], "Edmonton Oilers": [ 21.18, 31.4, 7.03, 6.9, 12.14, 8.85, 1.78, 2.07, 2.38, 2.19, 1.6, 1.1, 0.73, 0.42, 0.19, 0.03 ], "Florida Panthers": [ 2.24, 3.27, 4.7, 5.71, 4.26, 3.92, 8.31, 9.09, 8.76, 8.09, 8.05, 7.61, 7.41, 6.9, 6.42, 5.25 ], "Los Angeles Kings": [ 0.7, 3.05, 1.78, 2.64, 6.38, 10.15, 2.92, 4.78, 6.68, 8.67, 9.38, 10.48, 10.01, 9.58, 8.14, 4.66 ], "Minnesota Wild": [ 18.44, 8.99, 17.72, 13.84, 6.88, 3.38, 11.48, 7.28, 4.22, 2.81, 2.08, 1.28, 0.92, 0.46, 0.18, 0.04 ], "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens": [ 9.82, 9.72, 11.47, 10.37, 6.9, 5.46, 9.84, 7.98, 6.4, 5.22, 4.54, 3.95, 3.08, 2.4, 1.78, 1.04 ], "Nashville Predators": [ 1.59, 1.38, 3.88, 5.75, 3.26, 2.3, 10.72, 12.02, 11.16, 9.59, 9.04, 8.36, 7.61, 6.44, 4.8, 2.08 ], "New Jersey Devils": [ 3.36, 5.12, 6.25, 6.39, 9.5, 11.15, 5.63, 5.62, 6.48, 6.78, 6.72, 6.91, 6.04, 5.83, 4.81, 3.4 ], "New York Islanders": [ 1.23, 2.66, 2.97, 3.82, 5.85, 8.14, 4.64, 5.34, 6.65, 7.64, 8.12, 8.48, 8.74, 8.82, 8.58, 8.32 ], "New York Rangers": [ 1.34, 2.98, 3.12, 3.93, 6.3, 8.42, 4.64, 5.46, 6.61, 7.92, 7.92, 8.3, 8.48, 8.32, 8.65, 7.62 ], "Ottawa Senators": [ 5.24, 5.94, 8.05, 8.67, 6.12, 5.26, 10.25, 9.36, 8.04, 6.88, 6.01, 5.54, 4.98, 4.11, 3.33, 2.22 ], "Philadelphia Flyers": [ 0.16, 0.63, 0.7, 1.23, 2.31, 3.86, 2.07, 3.14, 4.12, 5.17, 6.94, 8.36, 9.82, 12.41, 15.68, 23.42 ], "Pittsburgh Penguins": [ 1.56, 2.92, 3.79, 4.52, 6.84, 8.96, 4.63, 5.58, 6.48, 7.48, 7.99, 8.06, 7.91, 7.98, 8.09, 7.2 ], "San Jose Sharks": [ 0.95, 3.6, 1.93, 3.24, 7.73, 11.55, 3.02, 5.01, 7.36, 8.97, 9.9, 9.64, 9.22, 8.64, 6.11, 3.13 ], "Seattle Kraken": [ 1.99, 6.36, 3.54, 5.0, 11.24, 14.89, 3.83, 5.42, 6.82, 8.24, 8.46, 7.22, 6.8, 5.08, 3.56, 1.54 ], "St. Louis Blues": [ 2.38, 1.98, 5.63, 7.54, 4.02, 2.87, 11.88, 12.97, 11.01, 9.07, 8.12, 7.22, 6.32, 4.84, 2.88, 1.24 ], "Tampa Bay Lightning": [ 14.91, 12.66, 12.73, 11.0, 7.54, 4.92, 9.14, 6.83, 5.28, 4.06, 3.43, 2.5, 1.93, 1.52, 1.06, 0.48 ], "Toronto Maple Leafs": [ 0.7, 0.98, 1.62, 2.7, 2.26, 2.27, 5.18, 5.98, 6.75, 7.62, 7.86, 9.04, 10.18, 11.26, 12.4, 13.21 ], "Utah Mammoth": [ 9.88, 5.7, 14.23, 13.64, 6.25, 4.12, 14.35, 10.06, 6.76, 4.81, 3.45, 2.62, 1.98, 1.27, 0.61, 0.26 ], "Vancouver Canucks": [ 0.0, 0.06, 0.02, 0.03, 0.38, 0.79, 0.26, 0.6, 1.05, 1.76, 2.76, 4.2, 6.97, 11.22, 20.8, 49.1 ], "Vegas Golden Knights": [ 7.72, 16.86, 7.97, 8.0, 15.79, 13.78, 3.08, 3.9, 4.84, 5.06, 4.62, 3.41, 2.2, 1.6, 0.82, 0.32 ], "Washington Capitals": [ 7.74, 9.01, 10.56, 8.86, 12.0, 11.8, 4.72, 4.83, 5.31, 5.04, 4.96, 4.18, 3.86, 2.99, 2.62, 1.51 ], "Winnipeg Jets": [ 0.44, 0.4, 1.36, 2.22, 1.59, 1.16, 5.62, 7.65, 9.05, 9.02, 9.56, 10.71, 11.68, 12.26, 10.76, 6.51 ] }, "expected": { "Anaheim Ducks": { "wins": 38.2, "seed": 10.1, "points": 86.2 }, "Boston Bruins": { "wins": 47.9, "seed": 5.7, "points": 103.9 }, "Buffalo Sabres": { "wins": 43.1, "seed": 8.2, "points": 97.1 }, "Calgary Flames": { "wins": 37.8, "seed": 10.6, "points": 84.6 }, "Carolina Hurricanes": { "wins": 51.3, "seed": 3.3, "points": 111.2 }, "Chicago Blackhawks": { "wins": 32.4, "seed": 13.4, "points": 75.4 }, "Colorado Avalanche": { "wins": 49.6, "seed": 4.1, "points": 106.8 }, "Columbus Blue Jackets": { "wins": 40.5, "seed": 10.6, "points": 89.6 }, "Dallas Stars": { "wins": 45.8, "seed": 6.2, "points": 100.0 }, "Detroit Red Wings": { "wins": 38.8, "seed": 11.0, "points": 89.1 }, "Edmonton Oilers": { "wins": 48.5, "seed": 3.7, "points": 106.2 }, "Florida Panthers": { "wins": 41.7, "seed": 9.3, "points": 93.8 }, "Los Angeles Kings": { "wins": 37.8, "seed": 10.1, "points": 86.3 }, "Minnesota Wild": { "wins": 47.5, "seed": 4.6, "points": 105.0 }, "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens": { "wins": 46.4, "seed": 6.3, "points": 102.3 }, "Nashville Predators": { "wins": 38.4, "seed": 9.3, "points": 90.3 }, "New Jersey Devils": { "wins": 43.9, "seed": 8.3, "points": 95.9 }, "New York Islanders": { "wins": 40.3, "seed": 10.1, "points": 91.1 }, "New York Rangers": { "wins": 41.0, "seed": 9.9, "points": 91.2 }, "Ottawa Senators": { "wins": 44.8, "seed": 7.7, "points": 98.3 }, "Philadelphia Flyers": { "wins": 35.6, "seed": 12.6, "points": 83.6 }, "Pittsburgh Penguins": { "wins": 41.1, "seed": 9.7, "points": 92.2 }, "San Jose Sharks": { "wins": 39.2, "seed": 9.6, "points": 88.1 }, "Seattle Kraken": { "wins": 41.1, "seed": 8.2, "points": 91.7 }, "St. Louis Blues": { "wins": 41.6, "seed": 8.6, "points": 92.3 }, "Tampa Bay Lightning": { "wins": 47.9, "seed": 5.3, "points": 105.0 }, "Toronto Maple Leafs": { "wins": 38.4, "seed": 11.5, "points": 87.5 }, "Utah Mammoth": { "wins": 46.7, "seed": 5.9, "points": 100.8 }, 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