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"id": "2050315", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-15T16:45:00Z", "home": "8538", "away": "50069", "homeScore": 3, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "2050316", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-15T16:45:00Z", "home": "52350", "away": "52731", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 4 }, { "id": "2050321", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-15T16:45:00Z", "home": "2606501", "away": "87960", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "2050322", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-15T16:45:00Z", "home": "2607924", "away": "79970", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "2050323", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-15T16:45:00Z", "home": "52359", "away": "50143", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 1 }, { "id": "2050324", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-15T16:45:00Z", "home": "2608297", "away": "50023", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 2 }, { "id": "2050325", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-15T16:45:00Z", "home": "74233", "away": "63401", "homeScore": 2, "awayScore": 0 }, { "id": "2050326", "round": null, "date": "2026-10-15T16:45:00Z", "home": "88148", "away": "75795", "homeScore": 1, "awayScore": 1 } ], "analysis": { "method": "Monte Carlo", "simulations": 20000, "model": "Poisson goals model", "modelNotes": [ "36 clubs play 6 league-phase games each.", "Team strength comes from a Poisson goals model (attack, defence, home advantage) fitted on every UEFA club match from this season and the 3 before, qualifiers included, plus domestic league games from nine countries at a quarter weight, with a 730-day half-life.", "Each club is rated as its country's level plus its own difference from it, so a club with only a few European games sits near its compatriots until its results say otherwise.", "The rest of the league phase and every knockout round are simulated 20,000 times, letting team strength drift (more when more of the season is left).", "League-phase ties follow UEFA's order: points, goal difference, goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins, then the opponents' combined record; simulated seasons settle anything still level by lot.", "Knockout draws follow UEFA's seeding: places 9-24 meet in the play-offs (9/10 v 23/24, 11/12 v 21/22, 13/14 v 19/20, 15/16 v 17/18), the top eight meet the play-off winners from the matching pair, and the top eight pairs are split between the halves of the bracket. Ties level after two legs go to extra time, then penalties (a coin flip).", "Backtested on 2024-25 and 2025-26 (1,062 main-draw matches in the three competitions): week-ahead predictions score 0.203 (ranked probability score) against 0.232 for home/draw/away base rates." ], "probabilities": { "50019": { "top8": 2.37, "top24": 53.79, "quarterFinals": 7.36, "title": 0.15 }, "50143": { "top8": 15.62, "top24": 84.56, "quarterFinals": 27.35, "title": 1.67 }, "52816": { "top8": 79.33, "top24": 99.72, "quarterFinals": 71.88, "title": 17.15 }, "50104": { "top8": 2.38, "top24": 53.05, "quarterFinals": 1.52, "title": 0.01 }, "52336": { "top8": 38.83, "top24": 96.34, "quarterFinals": 47.34, "title": 5.78 }, "52770": { "top8": 37.66, "top24": 96.3, "quarterFinals": 30.23, "title": 1.1 }, "2601105": { "top8": 63.81, "top24": 99.29, "quarterFinals": 79.36, "title": 32.47 }, "2608297": { "top8": 0.86, "top24": 39.16, "quarterFinals": 2.4, "title": 0.01 }, "52709": { "top8": 78.3, "top24": 99.78, 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